Thunder Odds to win Championship: 10/1
Nuggets Odds to win Championship: 40/1
Thunder Odds to win West: 5/1
Nuggets Odds to win West: 16/1
Series Line: OKC -240, DEN +200
Game 1 Line: OKC -5.5
Game 1 Total: 199
Odds and bets taken from Bodog.
For a matchup of a 4 seed against a 5 seed, the predictions could not be more lopsided. All four of Yahoo’s sports experts (Adrian Wojnarowski, Marc J. Spears, the Ball Don’t Lie blog owner, and Johnny Ludden) picked Oklahoma City, and no one predicted more than 6 games for the series. Spears and the Ball Don’t Lie blogger of Yahoo both predicted the Thunder would win in 5 games.
Why are people writing off the Nuggets? They finished with a 50-32 record. They did win only 3 of their last 6 games, but overall played well since the Melo Trade. Galinari has picked up where he left off in New York and has averaged 14.7 points per game as a nugget. Ty Lawson absolutely exploded after Billups was traded, including the game he hit 10 threes in 10 attempts, before missing a final 11th attempt. It was an NBA record. Lawson’s stats for the season are modest, 11.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, and 40.4% from three, but it was after Billups left that Lawson began having the big games.
The Nuggets also acquired Raymond Felton, whose stats dropped off radically from his stats in New York. In his 21 games as a Nugget, Felton averaged only 11.5 pionts per game and 6.5 assists per game, though he did shoot solid percentages (43% FG, 45.9% three).
Wilson Chandler has continued to provide versatile play and good defense. But his numbers have went down since leaving D’Antoni and New York behind, too. As a Nugget, Chandler is averaging 12.5 points per game, 1.1 blocks, and 5 boards. As a Knick, he was at 16.4 points per game, and 5 boards. The cause, however, is not just less shots. He’s shooting 4.2% worse from the field than he did in New York and his minutes have gone down from 34 a game to 30.
It would be safe to say that the Nuggets lack any stars. Nenê is very good and Lawson may emerge as one of the better young point guards in the game, but by losing Melo the Nuggets lost their closer. They now have no one worthy of isolating at the end of quarters and games.
Quite the opposite can be said of Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the obvious choice in Durant, but Westbrook has almost emerged as a “1 A” option, and the 6’3″ point guard is averaging 21.9 points per game, largely in part due to the fact that Westbrook is getting to the line over 2.5 times more per game than last season and is shooting a career high 84.2% from the line. It represents 2.5 points per game just in free throws alone. That, combined with the fact he is now attempting 17 shots per game, means opposing teams have to worry about two players going off, Durant AND Westbrook.
Durant has already proven himself to be one of the best offensive players in the last decade. He’s so natural on the court and is able to rise up and shoot over most defenders, using his 6’10” lanky frame to reach over defenders and hit a variety of mid range jumpers. There have been comparisons of Durant to Gervin, and while it may be a bit premature, it seems like an accurate projection. Over Gervin’s 13 career seasons (6 of which were spent in the ABA), he averaged 25.1 points per game and 26.2 over his 7 NBA seasons. If Durant can play to age 33, there’s a good chance he’ll surpass Gervin in the annals of great small forwards.
Ultimately it will be the play of Durant and Westbrook that sew the body bags of the Nuggets. The duo is difficult to contain, and if one is held to an off game, the other usually explodes. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins provide a lot of interior toughness that will be good to matchup with Nenê, Shelden Williams, and Chris “Birdman” Andersen, Kenyon Martin, and Al Harrington. While neither team relies very heavily on their big men for scoring production (though the Nuggets do often run sets for Nenê, as he averaged 14.5 ppg), the interior play – rebounding in particular – will prove to be crucial in this series.
Oklahoma City closed out the season series with a 104-89 win over the Nuggets and they lost the previous matchup, 3 nights prior by 7. The Nuggets did win the first game, but that was prior to the drastic altering of their team in the Carmelo Anthony trade. In the two games without Anthony, Durant went for 28 points and 32 points. If the rest of the Thunder contribute offensively, it will only take Durant scoring his season average for the Thunder to wrap this series up and take it home. The series could be a coming out party for Ty Lawson, who will get a chance to put his big game scoring to the test when it counts most.
Series Prediction: Oklahoma City, 4 games to 2
