NBA Picks ATS: Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets
December 17th, 2010 at 8:35 PM EST
Opening Line:  Houston -4
Current Line:  Houston -3
Opening Total:  203
Current Total 206
Opening Moneyline:  Houston -175 / Memphis +155
Current Moneyline:  Houston -145 / Memphis +125

Rudy Gay has proven himself to be worth every penny of the max contract he signed this past summer

Memphis comes into tonight’s game hot, having won their last four games against Charlotte, Portland, the Clippers, and Phoenix.  Wednesday night they obliterated the Bobcats, winning 113 to 80.  NBA oddsmakers may favor the Rockets because Memphis is a dismal 4-9 on the road, and Houston, despite their 10-15 record, is 7-4 at home.

The Rockets recently acquired promising and versatile swingman Terrence Williams from New Jersey.

“Terrence is a very talented and competitive player who allows us additional flexibility with our lineup,” general manager Daryl Morey told the Rockets’ official website. “He has an all-around offensive game along with a defensive mindset and ability.”

Williams should add a spark to the Houston lineup, as they are without point guard playmaker Aaron Brooks.  Backup point guard Kyle Lowry has played admirably in Brooks’ absense, but it hasn’t been enough to make the Rockets very successful, though they have gone a respectable 6-4 over their past ten games.  What’s worse, however, is that the Rockets found out that they are likely without Yao Ming for the rest of the season if he opts for surgery.  It might be the end to his young NBA career.

Some betting trends:  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis’ past 5 games and it has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 on the road.  The Grizzlies have lost their last 5 games to Houston and have lost their last 5 on the road in Houston as well.  Memphis is also 2-4 ATS over their last 6 in Houston.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games and they have won 5 consecutive games at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 13 of their past 19 at home.

Key matchups for tonight’s game:

Zach Randolph vs. Luis Scola

Scola has been nothing short of amazing this year and seems to be a lock to make his first all star team.  The Argentine forward is averaging 21 points per game and 9 boards a night and has been a bright spot for the Rockets in what has otherwise been a disappointing season.  He’ll face the powerful black-hole-on-offense Zach Randolph.  Randolph made his first all star team last season and like usual he is putting up impressive statistics, but Memphis still sits two games below .500.  They recently decided to move high scoring shooting guard O.J. Mayo to the bench, placing a larger scoring burden on Grizzlies starters.

Rudy Gay vs. Shane Battier

Rudy Gay has proved all doubters wrong after receiving a max contract this past summer.  He’s averaging a career high 21.0 points per game to go along with 6.1 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks, filling up the stat sheet every night.  Battier is one of the best defensive wingmen of the past decade and will have as good a chance as anyone at slowing down the red hot Gay.  He’ll attempt to keep Gay off the three point line where he is shooting a blistering 41.6%.  Battier won’t pose much of a problem for Gay on the offensive end, but can’t be left open either, as he is an effective 35% from downtown, mostly on shots from the corners.

Despite Memphis being on a four game winning streak NBA basketball point spreads somewhat inexplicably favor the Rockets.  Again, it is mostly a case of the road team being an underdog, but Houston will have their work cut out for them in tonight’s game.

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