NBA Odds: Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks

Dirk-Nowitzki-mavericks-3Miami at Dallas
Time: 8:30 PM ET, Feb 18, 2014
Line: MIA -3
Total: 205

Betting odds courtesy of Bovada

The Miami Heat are 37-14 and trail the Indiana Pacers by 2.5 games for the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 17-10 on the road and will travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game NBA oddsmakers are favoring the Heat by 3-points.

Miami has won eight of its past 10 and its past two over Golden State (Feb 12) and Phoenix (Feb 11). The Heat finished its West coast trip 3-1, but will have tonight’s game in Dallas and Thursday night in Oklahoma City before returning to American Airlines Arena Sunday night.

A big concern for the Heat is the health of Dwyane Wade. He’s battled injuries all season and has missed 16 games so far. He is expected to play tonight despite dealing with soreness in his left leg and foot. Wade’s numbers are way down across the board, averaging 18.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. The added pressure has had an effect on LeBron James, who is also down in all his averages and under 30 in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) for the first time in several seasons. The Heat are still most’s choice for NBA champs, but the Big three has dipped in production and the Heat aren’t getting big contributions from any of its role players either. Michael Beasley has been a failed project and everyone else is just one year older.

The Dallas Mavericks are 32-22 and are seated sixth in the Western Conference Playoff picture, with a half game lead over Phoenix and Golden State. The Mavs are 18-8 at home this season and have won seven of its past 10 games, but still trail No. 5 Portland by 4.5 games.

The Mavs are 8th in the NBA in scoring (103.9 points per game) and share the ball well (23.3 assists per game, 6th in NBA), but the defense has been mediocre all season. The Mavs surrender 101.7 points per game (20th in NBA) and could benefit immensely from having a rim protector on its roster. Samuel Dalembert blocks 1.0 shots per game and no other Maverick even blocks that.

The Mavs have a good offensive rotation with Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon, Vince Carter and Shawn Marion. Nowitzki is averaging 21 points per game in 32 minutes of play per night, and Ellis is posting nearly that as well with 19.3 points per game and 5.7 assists per contest. Calderon has taken a less ball-dominant role in sharing the backcourt with Ellis, but still averages 11.6 points and 4.8 assists per game. Vince Carter is still a good source of instant offense off the bench and he is averaging 11.3 points in 24.1 minutes per game.

MIA Trends: UNDER 4-0 in last 4 Tuesday games; OVER 4-0 in last 4 vs teams with winning SU records; OVER 4-0 in last 4 playing on 3 or more days rest.

DAL Trends: OVER 4-0-1 in last 5 home games vs teams with winning road records; OVER 6-0 in last 6 vs teams with winning SU records; OVER 13-1-2 in last 16 home games vs teams with winning road records.

Head-to-head: OVER 7-0 in last 7 meetings; Heat 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 meetings in Dallas; OVER 5-2 in last 7 meetings in Dallas.

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