NBA Game Seven Betting Picks: #4 Washington Wizards at #1 Boston Celtics

2017 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Semifinals Game #7
#4 Washington Wizards at #1 Boston Celtics
Best of Seven Series Tied 3-3
Monday, May 15, 2017, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Opening Line: Boston -4
Current Line: Boston -5
Opening Total: 212 1/2
Current Total: 210 1/2
Opening Money Line: Celtics -175 / Wizards +155
Current Money Line: Celtics -220 / Wizards +180

The Celtics and Wizards play game seven Monday night in Boston with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line.

Despite starting a day before every other series in the second round of the NBA playoffs, the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards will end at least four days after the other three series. The teams will play game seven Monday night in Boston. The home team has won every game in the series. The winner will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals starting Wednesday.

Washington is coached by Scott Brooks. The Wizards won the Southeast Division with a 49-33 record and are the #4 seed in the East. Washington beat the #5 seed Atlanta Hawks in six games in the first round. The Wizards are 47-46-1 ATS and the total is 59-35 this season. This is the first game seven for the Wizards/Bullets franchise since 1979.

Boston is coached by Brad Stevens. The Celtics won the Atlantic Division with a 53-29 record and are the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Despite losing the first two games at home, Boston beat the #8 seed Chicago Bulls in six games in the first round. The Celtics are 48-44-2 ATS and the total is 46-44-4 this season.

The Celtics won game one 123-111 and game two 129-119 in overtime, both in Boston. The Wizards got back in the series with a 116-89 win in game three and a 121-102 win in game four, both in Washington.The Celtics won game five 123-101 in Boston, but the Wizards forced game seven with a 92-91 win at home Friday night. Washington was a five point favorite in game six and the total was 215.

Washington took a 22-17 lead at the end of the first, but Boston would lead 42-41 at halftime. The Celtics took a 69-66 into the fourth. The game was back and fourth, but the Celtics took an 87-82 lead with 1:34 left. The Wizards tied it up with 41 seconds left on a three pointer from Bradley Beal, and two free throws from John Wall. The teams traded baskets to make it 89-89 with 28 seconds left. Boston took a 91-89 lead on a 16 foot shot from Al Horford with 7 seconds left. The Wizards regained the lead 92-91 on a three pointer from Wall with 3 seconds left. The Wizards had a had a foul to give and used it. Isaiah Thomas had a look from three at the buzzer but missed as the Wizards survived.

Boston shot 32/79 from the field including 11/35 from the field. The Celtics made 16/18 free throws. Boston had 47 rebounds, 25 assists, 11 turnovers, 5 steals and 3 blocks. The Celtics had 17 fast break points and 26 points in the paint. Washington shot 37/86 from the field including 5/24 from three point range. The Wizards made 13/21 free throws. Washington had 59 rebounds, 20 assists, 12 turnovers, 4 steals and 7 turnovers. The Wizards had 8 fast break points and 48 points in the paint.

Bradley Beal had 33 points, 5 assists and 2 rebounds for the Wizards. John Wall had 26 points, 8 assists, 2 rebounds and 2 blocks. Markieff Morris had 16 points, 11 rebounds and 2 assists. No other Wizard scored more than 6 points. Isaiah Thomas had 27 points, 7 assists and 3 rebounds for the Celtics. Avery Bradley had 27 points, 4 steals and 3 rebounds. Al Horford had 20 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists. Jae Crowder had 10 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds. The rest of the team combined for seven points.

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Washington is outscoring teams 109-107 this season. The Wizards are #5 in scoring but #21 in points allowed in the NBA. Washington is shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.2% from 3 point range. The Wizards are in the top ten in both categories. Washington makes 78.4% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 46.6% from the field and 36.4% from 3 point range. Washington is #20 or worse in both categories. The Wizards average 42.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 43 per game. The Wizards average 23.9 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.5 steals and 4.1 blocks per game.

John Wall averages 23.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 2 blocks per game. Bradley Beal averages 23.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Markieff Morris averages 14 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Otto Porter, Jr. averages 13.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He is probable with an elbow injury. Bojan Bogdanovic averages 12.7 points and 3.1 assists per game.  Marcin Gortat averages 10.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Marcus Thornton, Kelly Oubre, Jr., Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi. Trey Burke and Brandon Jennings will also get time in the rotation.

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Boston is outscoring teams 108-105 this season. The Celtics are #7 in scoring. Boston is shooting 45.4% from the field and 35.9% from 3 point range. Boston make 80.7% of their free throws and are #3 in that category. Opponents are shooting 45% from the field and 33.2% from 3 point range. The Celtics are #2 in 3 point defense and #9 in field goal defense. Boston averages 42 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.5 per game. The Celtics are #25 or worse in both categories. Boston averages 24.4 assists, 13.2 turnovers, 8.2 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Isaiah Thomas averages 28.9 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. The MVP candidate is still grieving after the loss of his sister in a car accident the day before the Bulls series started. Avery Bradley averages 16.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game.  Al Horford averages 14 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Jae Crowder averages 13.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Marcus Smart averages 10.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Kelly Olynyk averages 9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Jaylen Brown, Amir Johnson, Gerald Green, Terry Rozier, Jonas Jerebko, and Tyler Zeller will also get minutes in the rotation.

Washington is 8-2 ATS on two days rest, 3-7 against teams with winning records, against Eastern Conference teams, and overall, 5-12 after an ATS loss, 2-5 in conference semifinal games and against Atlantic teams, 1-5 in road games and against teams with winning home records. The over is 4-1 in Boston in this series recently.

Boston is 4-0 ATS at home and against teams with losing road records, 6-1 after an ATS win, 8-2 overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 against teams with winning records, 5-2 in conference semifinal games, and against Southeast Division teams, 35-17-1 in Monday games, and 8-19 on two days rest. The home team is 9-1 ATS in this series, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS. The Celtics are 10-4 ATS against the Wizards recently including 8-0 in Boston.

Until game six, every game in this series had been decided by at least 10 points. Not only has the home team won all six games in this series, but the home team also won all four meetings in the regular season. Interestingly, this scenario is in play for the Celtics over the next three days. They could win game seven against the Wizards tonight, win the draft lottery tomorrow as they have the Brooklyn Nets pick who had the worst record in the league, and win game one against the Cavaliers Wednesday. First things first though, I think the Celtics win a close game at home against the Wizards.

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