Miami Heat AT Portland Trailblazers
January 9th, 2011 at 9:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Miami -5.5
Current Line: Miami -5.5
Opening Total: 186
Current Total: 184
Opening Moneyline: Miami -215 / Portland +185
Current Moneyline: Miami -240 / Portland +195
Miami enters tonight’s game with an 8 game win streak, second to only Orlando’s 9 game win streak. Portland will try to thwart that in the Rose Garden, where they are an impressive 12-3. Miami, in fact however, has won 13 straight on the road and they have won 20 of their last 21.
The Heat won their last game against the lowly Bucks by 6 in OT. LeBron commented, “It takes luck sometimes. Games that you maybe shouldn’t have won. You have streaks like that, you definitely need some type of luck.”
That night, LeBron and Wade combined to go a horrid 12 of 39 from the field. They’ll have to improve on that to beat Portland, a notoriously tough team at home. Portland has won their last two games against Minnesota and Houston, and they have won 4 of their last 5.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games and they have won all 5 of those games. They have won their last 13 road games but have won only 1 of the last 6 against the Blazers. They are 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 against Portland. Miami has won 4 of their last 6 road games in Portland.
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games and 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home. The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 against the Heat and they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 playing the Heat. They are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against Miami and the total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 home games against the Heat.
Key Matchups:
Dwyane Wade vs. Wesley Matthews
For as much as you would like to think Wade is superior to Matthews, Matthews will give him a challenge on both ends of the court. Matthews scored a career high 36 points against Minnesota on Friday night in a 10 point Blazer victory. He is now averaging 16 points a game and is shooting 38% from behind the arc. Wade will not be able to rest on defense but will find himself having to stay out on Matthews and contest his shots, otherwise Matthews could be in for a big night. Moreover, Matthews is a very good defender and should be able to keep Wade from having a monster game. Wade has scored 25 or more in 5 of his last 6 games, including 40 or more in 2 of them, so Matthews will have his work cut out for him. But if Salmons can hold Wade to 14 points then Matthews can, too. This will be a much better matchup than most of you would expect from a player that only die hard basketball fans know is one of the emerging stars in the game in Matthews.
Chris Bosh vs. LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge has really picked up the slack in Brandon Roy’s absence. He’s averaging a career high 20.2 points per game and has scored 25 or more in his last 5 games, and also grabbed double digit rebounds in all those games except one. Bosh is a good defender, but if he’s not careful Aldridge could catch fire from outside where he does most of his damage. Bosh has got things together after a rough start where he was still trying to find his place in the Miami offense. He’s scored 15 or more in 13 of his last 14 games and has had double doubles in 6 of his last 8 games.
NBA Oddsmakers have set the line pretty close on this one. Miami is on fire on the road, as mentioned, but Portland is a very good team at home and even without Roy they still have a decent amount of fire. The only question is whether they can over come Miami’s suffocating defense and while doing so keep Wade and James from going wild.
