NBA Expert Picks: Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, 3/14/13, 8:00 PM EST, TV:  TNT
Opening Point Spread:  San Antonio -7.5
Current Betting Line:  San Antonio -8
Opening Total:  206
Current Total:  206
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Dallas Mavericks have lost eight of their last 10 games versus the San Antonio Spurs
The Dallas Mavericks have lost eight of their last 10 games versus the San Antonio Spurs

Dallas has won four games in a row, including a 115-108 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks as 2.5-point road underdogs Tuesday night, while going OVER the posted total of 210.  “We know time is short, and urgency is high,” commented Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle.  “We’re going to let it all hang out.”  The Mavericks might be playing without forward Shawn Marion for a fourth consecutive game, as he’s dealing with a left calf injury.  Dallas is 11-3 ATS on the road when the total is between 205 and 209.5 the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 10-4 in that situation.

The Mavericks are 13-21 overall on the road this season, including a 7-13 mark versus Western Conference opponents.  Dallas has dropped eight of the last 10 meetings in this series, which can’t be ignored when making your NBA picks against the spread Thursday.  It’s important to note that forward Dirk Nowitzki has made just one start in three games versus San Antonio, averaging 10.3 points and 5.0 rebounds.

San Antonio has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, as it looks to bounce back from a 107-83 setback to the Minnesota Timberwolves as nine-point road favorites Tuesday, while going UNDER the total for the fourth time in five contests.  “We’ve got to get things together,” commented Spurs guard Manu Ginobili.  The Spurs have won 22 of their last 24 games at the AT&T Center, which is important to consider when looking over the NBA betting lines.  San Antonio is 23-10 ATS off a upset loss the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 19-14 in that situation.

The Spurs are 26-4 overall at home this season, including a 17-3 mark versus conference foes.  San Antonio is second in points per game differential this season, averaging 8.1 more points than its opponent.  Offensively, the team ranks fourth in the league in scoring 104.4 points per game, while ranking second in shooting 48.7 percent from the floor.

Sports bettors will likely play the total in this affair, as the OVER is 5-3 in the Mavericks’ eight games as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points.

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