NBA Expert Picks ATS: Charlotte Bobcats at Sacramento Kings

Charlotte Bobcats AT Sacramento Kings
Jan 25, 2011 at 10 PM EST
Opening Line:  Sacramento -1
Current Line: Sacramento -1
Opening Total: 192.5
Current Total: 193
Opening Moneyline:  Cha -125 / Sac +105
Current Moneyline:  Cha -105 / Sac -115

Wallace is averaging 15.6 ppg and 7.9 rpg in his 10th NBA season

One could definitely stratify the layers of bad teams in the league, and if that were done you would see a stratification that leaves the lowly Kings layers below the already bad Charlotte Bobcats.  Charlotte is a sub par team that wins 40% of their games, but that would be regal for the Kings, who win only 23% of theirs.  They’re not even decent at home, where they have won just 6 of 22 games this year.  And yet, despite all this negative data, NBA Oddsmakers have inexplicably set the line in Sacramento’s favor.  Betting has not shifted the line, either, and it remains at Sacramento -1, making a bet on the Bobcats covering the spread a very good one.

With regard to the total, Charlotte averages 92.7 points per game and gives up 96.4 while Sacarmento scores 97.2 and gives up 102.4.  Using the combinative numbers of both teams’ averages, you get 189.2, which is slightly under the total set for tonight’s game.

Some betting trends:

Charlotte is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte’s last 6 road games.  They are 2-11 SU in their last 13 on the road and 4-1 SU in their last 5 against the Kings.  They are 2-4 SU in their last 6 road games against the Kings and 2-4 ATS in those games, as well.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacarmento’s last 6 games and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.  Sacramento is 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games at home and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games at home.  Sacramento is 5-16 SU in their last 21 home games and 1-4 SU in their last 5 against the Bobcats.  Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Bobcats and 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Bobcats at home.

Key Matchups:

Stephen Jackson vs. Tyreke Evans

This matchup features the best player off the two respective teams and should go a long way towards determining the outcome of this one.  Jackson is a couple inches taller than Evans, but Evans’ upper body strength should aid him in keeping Jackson from overpowering him on offense.  Both players are capable of big nights and both are decent defenders.  Evans became only the fourth player in league history to average 20 points per game, 5 assists per game, and 5 rebounds per game in their rookie season (the other three having been Jordan, Oscar Robertson, and LeBron James).  Jackson’s minutes and numbers are down slightly from last year, but still impressive.  He puts up 17.9 points per game, 4.0 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game, still above his career averages in his 13th NBA season.  Evans is having a bit of a sophomore slump, but that’s acceptable when he set the bar as high as he did as a rookie.  If you read back to the player prop bets from this preseason, you’ll read that I predicted just that.

Kwame Brown & Nazr Mohammed vs. DeMarcus Cousins

Kwame is having his best season since his 07-08 year with the Lakers, putting up 6.6 points per game and grabbing 5.9 rebounds per night in 20 minutes a game.  He’s proven to be an effective starter, and teams up with Nazr Mohammed to form an effective duo manning the center position.  They’ll both have their hands full with rookie DeMarcus Cousins, who has scored in double figures in 13 of the Kings’ past 15 games, including 6 performances of 20+ points or greater.  This will be his first matchup against the Bobcats.  The slower pace is probably to Cousins’ advantage as it will keep his energy level higher than a run and gun game.  He’ll use his size and strength on the block to push Brown and Mohammed further into the paint than they might be comfortable with.  If Cousins gets too physical though, expect the two Bobcat centers to flop and attempt to get him into foul trouble.

Tonight’s game should be a good contest between two bad teams, and I am having trouble understanding why the line is in Sacramento’s favor, so I personally bet against them covering the spread.

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