NBA Betting Picks: Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets

Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
Tuesday, April 9, 2013, 8:05 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Toyota Center – Houston, Texas
Opening Line: Houston -14
Current Line: Houston -14
Opening Total: 211
Current Total: 212
Opening Money Line: Rockets -1800 / Suns +1100
Current Money Line: Rockets -2000 / Suns +1200

Houston is a 14 point favorite at home against Phoenix Tuesday night.
Houston is a 14 point favorite at home against Phoenix Tuesday night.

With only a handful of games left in the regular season, the 43-34 Houston Rockets are currently the #7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, but are only a game behind the Golden State Warriors for the #6 seed. Neither team can be higher than the sixth seed. There is an outside shot one of them could drop to the #8 seed, but Houston is 2.5 games up on the Utah Jazz and 3 games up on the Los Angeles Lakers. Neither Houston nor Golden State have officially clinched a playoff spot but both teams will clinch with wins and a Utah loss at Oklahoma City Tuesday night. The Warriors host the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday.

The Rockets host the 23-54 Phoenix Suns who have the worst record in the Western Conference Tuesday night. Houston has won 13 of their last 16 home games. The Rockets lost at Denver Saturday night 132-114 to snap a 4 game winning streak. The Suns have lost 9 straight games including 95-92 at home to the New Orleans Hornets Sunday.

Houston and Phoenix have split the season series so far this season, with each winning at home. The Suns won March 9 in Phoenix 107-105, and the Rockets won 4 days later 111-81 in Houston. The win snapped a 3 game losing streak for Houston against the Suns. The two teams will also play next Monday in Phoenix in the Suns’ home finale.

Phoenix is coached by interim coach Lindsey Hunter, who took over after Alvin Gentry was fired in January. The Suns are being outscored 101-95 this season. They are 21st or worse in both categories. Phoenix is shooting 44.2% from the field and 32.5% from 3 point range. The Suns are #23 or worse in both categories. Phoenix makes 74.1% of their free throws. The Suns average 41.5 rebounds per game and give up 43.2 per game. Phoenix opponents are shooting 47% from the field and 39.4% from 3 point range. The Suns are #27 in the former and dead last in the latter. Phoenix averages 22.3 rebounds, 8 steals, 5.2 blocks, and 14.9 turnovers. The Suns are 29-45-3 ATS and the total is 37-39-1 this season.

Point guard Goran Dragic averages 14.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Power forward Luis Scola averages 12.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Center Marcin Gortat is out indefinitely with a foot injury, and missed almost a month. He averages 11.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game. Shooting guard Jared Dudley averages 10.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists. Guard Shannon Brown averages  10.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1 steal a game. Forward Michael Beasley averages 10.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. Center Jermaine O’Neal averages 8.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. He is probable with a shin injury. Wesley Johnson, Markieff & Marcus Morris, and P.J. Tucker make up the rest of the rotation. Forward Channing Frye is out for the season with a heart condition.

Houston is coached by Kevin McHale. The Rockets are outscoring teams 106-103 this season. The Rockets lead the league in scoring but are #28 in points allowed. The Rockets are shooting 46.2% from the field and 36.9% from 3 point range. Houston is in the top 10 in the league in both categories. The Rockets make 75.4% of their free throws. Houston averages 43.3 rebounds and gives up 41.4 per game. The Rockets are in the top 10 in both categories. Houston opponents  are shooting 45.8% from the field and 36.9% from 3 point range. The Rockets average 23.3 assists, 8.3 steals, 4.1 blocks, and 15.8 turnovers per game. Houston is 40-36-1 ATS and the total is 39-38 this season.

Shooting guard James Harden averages 25.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Harden is 5th in the league in scoring, behind Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Small forward Chandler Parsons averages 15.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1 steal a game. He is questionable with a calf injury. Point guard Jeremy Lin averages 13.2 points, 3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Shooting guard Carlos Delfino averages 10.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal a game. He is questionable with a foot injury and an illness. Center Omer Asik averages 10.3 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. Francisco Garcia, Donatas Motiejunas, Greg Smith, Thomas Robinson, and Terrance Jones make up the rest of the rotation.

The Suns are 5-12 ATS after a loss, 4-10 overall, 7-19-1 on one day’s rest, 4-11-2 against Southwest Division teams, 3-12 when their opponent scored more than 100 points in the previous game, 2-9 when the opponent allowed more than 100 points, 1-5 against Western Conference teams, 0-6 in road games, and 0-5 against teams with winning home records. The Suns are 20-7 ATS recently against the rockets including 17-5 in Houston.

The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in Tuesday games, 4-1 after scoring more than 100 points, 6-2 against Pacific Division teams, 15-7 after allowing 100 points or more, 1-4 after a straight up loss of 10 points or more, and 1-5 against teams with losing  road records. The under is 5-2 recently in this series.

Both of these teams struggle on defense. The difference is Houston has a great offense and Phoenix is terrible on offense as well as defense. Even if Delfino and Parsons can’t go tonight, Houston should roll against a Suns’ team just playing out the string. Phoenix has had success in this series recently ATS but Houston needs this game way more than Phoenix.

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