NBA Betting Picks: Miami Heat at New York Knicks

Miami Heat at New York Knicks
Sunday, March 3, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Madison Square Garden – New York City, New York
Opening Line: Miami -4 1/2
Current Line: Miami -4 1/2
Opening Total: 198
Current Total: 198 1/2
Opening Money Line: Heat -190 / Knicks +160
Current Money Line: Heat -190 / Knicks +160

Heat Celtics NBA Game Preview
LeBron leads the Heat against the Knicks Sunday afternoon. The Heat are 4.5 point favorites at MSG.

The 42-14 Miami Heat have won 13 straight games, and now have the NBA’s second best record behind the 46-14 San Antonio Spurs. The Heat lead the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers by 6 1/2 games for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The 35-20 Knicks host the Heat Sunday afternoon. The Knicks have won 3 straight games after a 4 game losing streak. Miami beat the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night 98-91, and New York won at the Washington Wizards Friday night 96-88.

The Knicks won the first two games against the Heat early in the season with a pair of 20 point blowouts. New York won at home November 2 104-84 despite being with out Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks also won in Miami 112-92 December 6th. The two teams will play again after this game April 2 in Miami. Miami beat the Knicks 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs last year en route to winning the NBA title.

Miami is coached by Eric Spoelstra. The Heat are 29-27 ATS this season and the total is 30-26. New York is coached by Mike Woodson. The Knicks are 26-27-2 ATS and the total is also 26-27-2 this season.

Miami is outscoring teams 104-97 this season. The Heat are #5 in scoring and #12 in points allowed. Miami is shooting 49.6% from the field and 39.3% from 3 point range. The Heat lead the league in field goal shooting and are #2 in 3 point shooting. Miami makes 76.1% of their free throws. The Heat are last in the league in rebounding at 38.6 per game, and fourth in rebounds allowed with 40. Miami opponents are shooting 44.3% from the field and 36.1% from 3 point range. The Heat average  22.6 assists, 8.6 steals, 5.1 blocks, and 13.2 turnovers per game.

Forward LeBron James is averaging 27.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. He is the prohibitive favorite to win his fourth MVP award. Guard Dwyane Wade averages 21.5 points, 5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Forward/center Chris Bosh averages 16.9 points, 7.1 rebounds,  1.5 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. Guard Ray Allen averages 11 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Point guard Mario Chalmers averages 8.1 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Forward Shane Battier averages 6.5 points and 2.2 rebounds. Norris Cole, Rashard Lewis,  Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and Chris Andersen make up the rest of the rotation. Miller is questionable with an illness Sunday.

New York is outscoring teams 100-96 this season. The Knicks are #10 in both categories. New York is shooting 44.2% from the field and 37.1% from 3 point range. The Knicks are #6 in three point shooting. New York makes 75.6% of their free throws. The Knicks average 41.3 rebounds per game and give up 41.8 per game. Knicks’ opponents are shooting 45.8% from the field and 36.4% from 3 point range. New York averages 19.5 assists, 8.1 steals, 3.8 steals, and 11.8 turnovers per game.

Forward Carmelo Anthony averages 28.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. Guard J.R. Smith averages 16.1 points, 5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Guard Raymond Felton averages 14.8 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Amar’e Stoudemire averages 13.6 points, and 4.8 rebounds per game. Center Tyson Chandler is averaging 11.3 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. Steve Novak, Jason Kidd, Chris Copeland, Iman Shumpert, Pablo Prigioni, Kurt Thomas, and Marcus Camby make up the rest of the rotation. Camby is questionable with a foot injury. Rasheed Wallace is out until early May with a broken foot.

Miami is 5-0 ATS in road games, and against teams with winning road records, 5-1 on one day rest, 4-1 against teams with winning records, 7-3 after a straight up win, and overall. The under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 in this series and 6-0 in New York.

New York is 7-3 ATS against Southeast Division teams, 1-4 in Sunday games, 1-4-1 on one day rest, 1-5 against Eastern Confernce teams, 1-6 against teams with winning records, 1-7-1 overall, and 0-4 at home. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in this series.

While the Knicks routed the Heat twice early in the season, Miami is playing much better now. LeBron has been almost unstoppable in the 13 game winning streak for the Heat. The Knicks’ chemistry has suffered since Amar’e Stoudemire returned to the line-up after off-season knee surgery. I like the Heat to win on the road.

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