NBA Betting Picks: Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets

Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets
Monday, 1/28/13, 9:00 PM EST, TV:  ALT2
Opening Point Spread:  Denver -5.5
Current Betting Line:  Denver -5.5
Opening Total:  194.5
Current Total:  195
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Denver Nuggets are 13-7 ATS at home this season
The Denver Nuggets are 13-7 ATS at home this season

Indiana has dropped back-to-back games, including a 114-110 overtime loss to the Utah Jazz as two-point road underdogs last time out, while going OVER the total for the first time in three contests.  “We have to tighten the screws on defense,” commented Pacers coach Frank Vogel.  The Pacers have allowed opponents to score over the century mark in their last two games, which is important to handicap when looking over the pro basketball odds page, considering they allow only 89.9 points per game on the season.  Indiana is 3-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points this season, with the UNDER going 4-2 in that situation.

The Pacers are 10-15 overall on the road, including a 4-6 mark versus Western Conference opponents.  Indiana has allowed an average of 55.0 points in the paint over its last two games, which could be a major problem against one of the better offensive teams in that category.  It’s important to note that the franchise hasn’t won at the Pepsi Center since 2007, which will be hard to ignore when making your NBA picks against the spread Monday night.

Denver has won three games in a row due to scoring at least 105 points in that span, as it comes off a dominating 121-93 victory over the Sacramento Kings as 12.5-point home favorites, while going OVER the total for the sixth time in seven contests.  “We came out aggressive and it started with our defense,” stated Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried.  “That really ignited our offense.”  He is one of four probable starters averaging 10 or more points per game, scoring 12.0 points and grabbing 9.8 rebounds.  Denver is 13-7 ATS at home this season, with the UNDER going 10-9-1 in that situation.

The Nuggets are 17-3 overall at this venue, including a 5-2 mark versus Eastern Conference opponents.  Denver has gone 13-3 overall in the regular season against Indiana since 2004-05, which includes a 92-89 victory as two-point road underdogs on Dec. 7, while going UNDER the posted total of 195.  Offensively, the squad scored a season-high 71 first half points versus Sacramento, while also posting a season-high 101 through three quarters of action.

Sports bettors will likely back the Nuggets due to their 14-3 ATS mark versus Central division opponents, while the Pacers are 1-7 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record.

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