Tip off: 10:35 PM EST
Spread: MIA -3
Total: 210
M/L: MIA -165, DEN +145
Dwyane Wade returned last game for the 8-3 Heat, but a true sign of how much the Clippers have improved transpired in a 6 point Clippers victory. The “Big 3″ combined for only 56 points, and Mario Chalmers chipped in 18, but three Clippers players scored 20 or more (Caron Butler, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul). LeBron James is having his best season since his last in Cleveland. The 6’8” forward is putting up 29.0 points per game to go with his 8.5 boards and 7.5 assists. He has improved in every major statistical category from last season and is averaging a career high 57% from the floor. James has also scored 32 points or more 5 times this season, already.
The Nuggets have quietly been one of the most improved teams in the league. At 7-4, they sit at third in the Northwest division, and they are 2nd in the league in points per game (103.6). They give up 97.5 per game, but still come out with a +6.1 point margin of victory.
Last game, the Nuggets won a high scoring affair against the woeful New Jersey Nets. The Nuggets put up 123 points, led by Danilo Gallinari’s 22. . Gallinari is averaging 17.2 points per game and has put up 20 or more in 5 games so far this season. Five other Nuggets reached double figures, and Andre Miller came up with 12 points and 12 assists starting for the injured Ty Lawson. Both Gallinari and Lawson are day to day with nagging injuries.
Heat Betting Trends:
Miami is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games and the total has gone OVER In 4 of their last 5 games. The Heat are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road and they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against the Nuggets and the Heat are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games against Denver. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Denver and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on the road against Denver. The total has gone OVER In 5 of the Heat’s last 7 games on the road against the Nuggets and the Heat are 0-5 SU in their last 5 on the road against the Nuggets.
Nuggets Betting Trends:
The Nuggets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER In 6 of Denver’s last 8 games. The total has also gone UNDER IN 4 of their last 5 at home and the Nuggets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 against the Miami Heat and the Nuggets are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games vs the Heat. The Total has gone OVER in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 7 games at home against the Heat and the Nuggets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home against Miami.
Key Matchup:
Chris Bosh vs. Nene
With Lawson and Gallinari doubtful, the offensive load is going to fall on Nene’s shoulders. The Brazilian native has made the move from center to power forward this season to open up playing time for the young Timofey Mosgov, and Nene should have his way with Bosh on the blocks. Expect Bosh to need a lot of help side defense, particularly if he isn’t able to keep Nene from establishing position. Bosh will make Nene work defensively, too, though. Bosh is putting up 19 points per game this season on 51.2% shooting. He’s changed his role to a more perimeter oriented game, but has actually picked up less assists in the new role, with an anemic 1.7 assists per game.
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