NBA Basketball Betting Analysis: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Jennings must improve his shot selection and decision making to take the next steps as a player
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tip off: 8:35 PM EST
Spread: MIL -5
Total: 192.5
M/L: MIL -215, MIN +185

Odds taken from Bookmaker

This is a battle between two teams that are likely lottery bound. Two seasons ago, Milwaukee appeared to be on their way to legitimacy with their whole “Fear the Deer” campaign, and Brandon Jennings appeared as though he may be the steal of the draft, but since things have settled down in Brew Town.

The Timberwolves have some nice pieces in tact but are a long way from resembling even a playoff team. Their best player, Kevin Love, is a superb rebounder and threat from behind the arc, and #2 overall pick Michael Beasley can fill up the net, but the Wolves are too young and too raw to make much of a difference this season. Ricky Rubio should eventually help put butts in seats, but right now he is still playing behind Luke Ridnour in the rotation, so much has yet to change in Minnesota.

Some betting trends:

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games. They are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games and 0-5 SU in their last 5 raod games, while the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against the Bucks. The Timberwolves are 16-8 SU in their last 24 against Milwaukee.

The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games. The Bucks are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Bucks’ last 17 home games and they are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home. The Bucks are 8-16 SU in their last 24 against the Timberwolves and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Wolves. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Bucks’ last 5 games against Minnesota and the Bucks are 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home against Minneosta. The Bucks are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 at home against Minnesota.

Key Matchups:

Brandon Jennings vs. Luke Ridnour

Jennings was once being considered as one of the best young point guards in the game, but he hasn’t ever really grown into that role. He has remained inconsistent, with a poor shot selection and poor decision making. Luke Ridnour could be said to be the opposite, very consistent, a decent shooter, and an excellent decision maker. Jennings is clearly more talented, but there’s a lot more that goes into making a good NBA player than talent, unfortunately, for Jennings, and he must continue to learn more as he comes into his own as a starter caliber NBA point.

Andrew Bogut / Mbah a Moute vs. Kevin Love / Milicic

Clearly, the PF/C battle here is more about Andrew Bogut and Kevin Love than their sub par compliments. Bogut has shown himself to be one of the best bigs in the game on both ends of the court and figured out how to block a lot of shots last year after not blocking that many all years prior in the league. Love is the best rebounder in the game and does it without athleticism. His outside shot, work ethic, and the fact he has shed 20 pounds should make him among the best power forwards in the league again this season.

If you like this analysis and would like to back up a bet, we suggest Bookmaker for all your betting needs, and that is where these odds were drawn from. Also, check out our paid pick plans for 2011-2012 as our NBA handicappers murder the books once again!

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