Mountain West College Football Picks: Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos

Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos
Bronco Stadium – Boise Idaho
Saturday, September 6, 2014, 10:15 pm Eastern, TV:  ESPN2
Opening Line: Boise State -8

Current Line: Boise State -9
Opening Total: 58 1/2
Current Total: 55 1/2
Opening Money Line: Boise State -330 / Colorado State +270
Current Money Line: Boise State -360 / Colorado State +300 

Boise State is a favorite against Colorado State in the Mountain West opener for both teams.
Boise State is a 9 point favorite against Colorado State in the Mountain West opener for both teams.

Many say Colorado State and Boise State are the two best teams in the Mountain West but fans of Utah State and Fresno State might disagree. Colorado State travels to Boise State Saturday in an early season showdown. The Broncos have won all three previous meetings by double digits and all three have been since Boise State joined the Mountain West in 2011. The Broncos won last year in Fort Collins 42-20.

Colorado State is coached by Jim McElwain. The Rams opened the season at 2.5 point underdogs in Denver against in-state rival Colorado last Friday and the total was 54. Colorado State pulled off the mild upset 31-17.

Boise State is coached Bryan Harsin. He made his Boise State coaching debut last Thursday in a 35-13 loss to Ole Miss in Atlanta. Mississippi was a 9.5 point favorite and the total was 52.

Colorado took a 10-0 lead early against Colorado State. The Rams would score late in the second quarter  to make it 10-7. The Buffaloes scored early in the third to take a 17-7 lead, but would not score again. CSU scored  24 unanswered points to end the game and win 31-17.

Colorado State had 400 total yards including 266 rushing yards. Colorado had 375 total yards including 241 passing yards. Each team had 6 penalties and the Rams had the only turnover of the game. CSU had 27 first downs to 22 for Colorado. The Rams were 6/12  on third and fourth down conversions. The Buffaloes were 6/17 on third and fourth down conversions.

CSU quarterback Garrett Grayson completed 13 of 23 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown. Running back Dee Hart had 22 carries for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 35 yards. Trevous Jarrells had 17 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Ole Miss took a 7-3 lead against Boise State at halftime last week. The Broncos kicked a third quarter field goal to make it 7-6 going into the fourth. However, the Rebels scored 21 straight points to open the fourth and take a 28-6 lead. Each team would add a touchdown to make the final 35-13.

Boise State had 399  total yards including 264 passing yards. Ole Miss had 458 total yards including 387 passing yards. The game was sloppy as the two teams combined for 7 turnovers and 23 penalties for 150 yards. Boise had 26 first downs to 22 for Ole Miss. The Broncos were 6/17 on third and fourth down conversions. The Rebels were  6/15.

Boise State quarterback Grant Hedrick completed 36 of 46 passes for 264 yards with a touchdown and 4 interceptions, and also had 14 carries for 24 yards. Running back Jay Ajayi had 20 carries for 86 yards, and also 12 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.

Colorado State is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 20 points, 4-0 against teams with losing records and in September. 3-0-1 after passing for less than 170 yards, 7-1 in road games, 5-1 overall, 9-3-1 in fieldturf, 20-7-1 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 5-2 in Mountain West games, and 7-3-1 after a cover.

Boise State is 6-1 ATS after scoring less than 20 points, 5-1 after a straight up loss,  13-5 in September, 27-11-1 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 7-15 in Mountain West games, 6-14 at home, 3-9 against teams with winning records, 1-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 0-5 after allowing more than 450 total yards, and 0-4 overall.

Boise hung with Ole Miss for three quarters before falling apart in the fourth. hedrick needs to play much better than he did last week. Still Boise is usually tough on the blue turf at home, and should win this game.

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