Mountain West Betting Preview: Boise St Broncos at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Boise St Broncos at #20 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Thomas & Mack Center – Las Vegas, NV
Wednesday, February 22, 2012, 10:15 pm Eastern, TV: CBSSN
Opening Line: UNLV -15
Current Line: UNLV -13 1/2
Opening Total: 141
Current Total: 140 1/2
Opening Money Line: UNLV -1200 / Boise St +800
Current Money Line: UNLV -1200 / Boise St +800

UNLV hosts Boise St Wednesday night in a crucial Mountain West game. The Runnin' Rebels are 13.5 point favorites at home where they are undefeated this year.

After a disastrous 0-2 road trip which saw UNLV drop out of first place in the Mountain West, the Runnin’ Rebels now return home to the friendly confines of the Thomas and Mack where they are undefeated. The 22-6 Rebels are 6-4 in conference and look to gain ground on first place New Mexico who lost at Colorado St Tuesday night. UNLV hosts 13-12 Boise St who is 3-7 in conference, tied for last with Air Force in the standings. The Mountain West is the only conference in the country where every team is above .500. UNLV leads the series against Boise St 3-1. The Rebels escaped with a 77-72 overtime victory in Boise last month.

Boise St is coached by Leon Rice. The Broncos have won 3 straight games after an 8 game losing streak. The Broncos have losses to  Long Beach St, LSU, Denver, Iowa, Fresno St, Air Force, TCU, Wyoming, San Diego St, and new Mexico. Boise St has wins over Utah, CS-Northridge, Northern Illinois, Drake, Indiana St, Portland, Fresno St, Idaho, Air Force, Colorado St, and Saturday at home against TCU 65-64.

UNLV is coached by Dave Rice who is in his first year with the program. The Rebels are 16-0 in Las Vegas, but only 6-6 on the road. UNLV has losses to Wichita St, Wisconsin, San Diego St, Wyoming, TCU, and at New Mexico Saturday 65-45. UNLV has wins over Nevada, Cal Poly, USC, North Carolina, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP, Illinois, California, Hawaii, TCU, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado St, and San Diego St.

Boise St is outscoring teams 71-66 this season. The Broncos are shooting 43.6% from the field, and 35.7% from 3 point range. Boise St makes 69.5% of their free throws. The Broncos average 33.9 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of +3.1. Boise averages 12.1 assists, 12.2 turnovers, 6.5 steals, and 2.2 blocks a game. Bronco opponents are shooting 44.6% from the field and 36.9% from 3 point range. BSU forces 14 turnovers a game.

Boise St guard/forward Anthony Drmic averages 12.3 points, 5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. He leads the Broncos in scoring and rebounding, and makes 34% of his 3 pointers. Derrick Marks averages 9.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. He leads the team in blocks but only averages 0.5 a game. Kenny Buckner averages 9 points, and 4.6 rebounds a game. Six other Broncos average at least 6.2 points a game. Wesley Perryman leads the Broncos in assists with 2.5 a game and steals with 1.5 a game.

UNLV is outscoring opponents 79-67 this season. UNLV is #14 in scoring nationally. The Rebels shoot 46.9% from the field, including 36.5% from 3 point range. The Rebels make 67.9% from the free throw line. UNLV is #25 in rebounding averaging 38.6 rebounds a game, and has a rebounding margin of +4. The Rebels average 18.4 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 5 blocks, and 8.5 steals a game. UNLV is second nationally in assists per game. UNLV opponents are shooting 40.9% from the field including 34.5% from 3 point range. The Rebels force 15.2 turnovers a game.

Forward Mike Moser averages 14.7 points, 11 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.9 steals a game. Moser leads the Rebels in scoring rebounds and steals and is shooting 34% from 3 point range. Chace Stanback averages 13.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He makes 45.7% from 3 point range. Anthony Marshall averages 12 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. Point guard Oscar Bellfield averages 10 points, 2.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists a game to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game. Bellfield shoots 35.6% from 3 point range.  Justin Hawkins averages 8.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.6 steals. Carlos Lopez and Quintrell Thomas lead the Rebels in blocks with 1.1 a game.

UNLV is 10-14 ATS and the total is 11-13 this season. Boise St is 10-14 ATS and the total is 12-12 this season. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in Wednesday games, 16-36-1 after failing to cover, 4-9 as an underdog, including 3-7 on the road, 4-10 against teams with winning records, 3-8 in road games, and in road games against teams with winning home records, 2-6-1 as a road underdog of 13 points or more, 4-12 overall, and 0-5 after a straight up win. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS at home and as a home favorite, 6-2 in Wednesday games, 1-4 after failing to cover, 1-5 after a straight up loss, and as a favorite, 0-4 against teams with winning records, overall, and in Mountain West games.

UNLV has struggled recently losing 3 of their last 4 games. This is mainly due to to some scoring lulls from the offense that can be explosive. Boise St has struggled on the road this season, and UNLV has been dominant at home. I like UNLV to win and cover at home in a game they need to win desperately. The Rebels should be in an angry mood after being embarrassed on national television by New Mexico Saturday.

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