Mountain West Betting Odds and Predictions: Boise State at New Mexico

Ajayi had 118 yards and two TDs last week.
Ajayi had 118 yards and two TDs last week.

Boise State at New Mexico
Time: 7 PM ET
Spread: BS -19
Total: 61

Betting odds courtesy of Bovada

6-2 Boise State is winners of its past three contests to improve to 3-1 in Mountain West play this year. This week, the Broncos travel to 3-5 New Mexico in a game college football oddsmakers are favoring the Broncos by 19-points with the total set high at 61 in college football odds.

The Broncos have a 15th ranked pass offense that generates 305.9 yards per game, while the team also gets nearly 200 by the rush. The Broncos average 34.9 points per game, and the defense is just strong enough, allowing 27.5 points per contest. Last week, the Broncos commanded the game against BYU, winning by 25 points as Grant Hedrick threw for 410 yards and four TDs, while being intercepted once. The Broncos also got a 118 yard rushing game from Jay Ajayi, who contributed two TDs, as well.

Ajayi, now a junior, has built off an impressive sophomore season last year that saw the 6’0” running back rush for 1,425 yards and 18 TDs. This year, he’s at 985 and 12, but his yards per carry have fallen from 5.7 to 5.0.

Hedrick has thrown for 2,241 yards on the season at a 72 percent clip. His passer rating is 151.1, but he has struggled with turnovers, having thrown 11 INTs on the season. Even so, the Broncos have five targets for Hedrick, all with 250 yards or better, led by Matt Miller and Shane Williams-Rhodes, who have combined for nearly 1,000 yards and seven TDs on the season.

New Mexico has been as one-dimensional as possible this season. The Lobos get 304 yards per game via the rush, but rank near the bottom of passing, getting just 74.6 yards per game in the air. Last week in the 3-point victory over UNLV, Jhrell Pressley rushed for 138 yards and three TDs, while Teriyon Gipson added an additional 80 yards and a TD. The Lobos controlled the clock as usual, possessing the ball for over 33 minutes, while struggling on third-down conversions (4-of-13).

Pressley has rushed for nine TDs on the season with an outstanding 8.2 yard per carry average. Gipson also averages 4.6 yards per carry, while QB Jordan averages 5.3 yards per carry and has 329 yards on the season. While Jordan has thrown just 60 passes on the season, the element of surprise is there every time. He’s thrown for four TDs and has just one pick, helping account for a still good passer rating of 132.9.

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