Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Monday, September 28, 2015, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Green Bay -6 1/2
Current Line: Green Bay -5 1/2
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Packers -275 / Chiefs +225
Current Money Line: Packers -250 / Chiefs +210

The Packers are 5.5 point favorites against the Chiefs Monday night.
The Packers are 5.5 point favorites against the Chiefs Monday night.

The 2-0 Green Bay Packers host the 1-1 Kansas City Chiefs Monday night. Kansas City leads the series 7-3-1 all-time. The Chiefs have won 6 of the last 7 games against the Packers dating back to 1989. Kansas City won the last meeting 19-14 at home in 2011. The Chiefs are 3-0 all-time in Lambeau, and they haven’t played in Green Bay since 2003. The teams famously played in Super Bowl I with Green Bay winning 35-10.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs won at the Houston Texans 27-20 in week one. Last week, the Chiefs hosted the rival Denver Broncos on Thursday night. Kansas City jumped out to a 14-0 lead including a 55 yard pick six. The Broncos would tie it up by halftime. The teams exchanged field goals in the third quarter. The Chiefs took a 24-17 lead with 2:27 left in the fourth. The Broncos tied the game with 36 seconds left. The game appeared headed into overtime, but KC running back Jamaal Charles fumbled. The Broncos recovered the fumble and ran it back 21 yards for the game winning touchdown. The Broncos held on for the improbable 31-24 win. The Chiefs were 3 point favorites and the total was 42. Kansas City is 1-1 ATS and both games have gone over the total.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 2-0 with a road win at the Chicago Bears 31-23 and at home last week over the Seattle Seahawks 27-17. The Packers led 13-3 at halftime but Seattle would score two touchdowns in the third to take a 17-13 lead. However, Green Bay scored the last 14 points of the game to win by 10. The Packers were 3.5 point favorites against the Seahawks and the total was 49. Green Bay is 2-0 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

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Kansas City is scoring 25.5 points per game and opponents are also scoring 25.5 per game. The Chiefs are averaging 334 total yards per game including 212 passing and 122 rushing yards. On defense, KC is allowing 348 yards per game including 268 passing and 80 rushing yards per game. Kansas City is 3/20 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 9/32. The Chiefs have forced 8 sacks and allowed 7 this season. The Chiefs are -2 in turnovers.

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith has completed 65.5% of his passes for 434 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and also has 12 carries for 30 yards. Charles has 37 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown, along with 9 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. Knile Davis has 9 carries for 25 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch for 12 yards.

Tight end Travis Kelce has 10 catches for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Jeremy Maclin has 9 catches for 109 yards. No Kansas City wide receiver has caught a touchdown pass since late in the 2013 season.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 29-20 this season. The Packers are in the top ten in both categories. Green Bay is averaging 342 yards per game on offense including 212 passing and 130 rushing yards. The Packers are #8 in rushing but #28 in passing. On defense, the Packers are allowing 363 yards per game including 209 passing and 154 rushing yards. Green Bay is #9 in pass defense, but #31 in rush defense. The Packers are 11/22 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 16/29. Green Bay has forced 4 sacks and has allowed 2 this season. The Packers are +2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 76.8% of his passes for 438 yards along with 5 touchdowns and an interception, along with 14 carries for 58 yards. Running back James Starks has 22 carries for 97 yards along with 4 catches. Eddie Lacy has 22 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 catches for 14 yards. He is questionable with an ankle injury.

Receiver Randall Cobb has 13 catches for 154 yards and a  touchdown. Davante Adams has 9 catches for 92 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. James Jones has 5 catches for 80 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Richard Rodgers  has 6 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season.

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in week three, 4-1 in Monday games and in September, 6-2 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 5-2 after a straight up loss, and 1-4 against teams with winning records. The underdog has covered the last four games in this series.

Green Bay is 5-0-1 ATS after gaining more than 350 total yards, 5-1 overall, 4-1 after a straight up win, 3-1-1 in September, 39-17-1 on grass, 34-16-2 at home, 1-4 in Monday games and in week three.

Aaron Rodgers has put up some pedestrian numbers so far in 2015 after winning MVP in 2014. He seems to be missing his security blanket Nelson. Still the Packers are 2-0. Kansas City can’t afford a hangover from such a devastating loss to a hated division rival. I think the Packers are a better team and win comfortably at home.

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