Midwest Second Round Betting Picks: Purdue Boilermakers vs St. Mary’s Gaels

2012 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Second Round
#10 Purdue Boilermakers vs #7 St. Mary’s Gaels
CenturyLink Center – Omaha, Nebraska
Friday, March 16, 2012, 7:27 pm Eastern, TV: truTV
Opening Line: Purdue -1
Current Line: St. Mary’s -2
Opening Total: 138
Current Total: 140
Opening Money Line: Purdue -135 / St. Mary’s +115
Current Money Line: St. Mary’s -135 / Purdue +115

St. Mary's is a slight favorite against Purdue in the second round of the Midwest Region in Omaha.

The 21-12 Purdue Boilermakers finished sixth in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are coached by Matt Painter and went 4-2 down the stretch. Purdue lost to Ohio St 88-71 in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Purdue is playing in the NCAA tournament for the sixth straight season. The Boilermakers have won at least one tournament game the last 5 seasons.

Purdue will take on the St. Mary’s Gaels who won both the West Coast Conference regular season and tournament titles with a 27-5 record. The Gaels are coached by Randy Bennett, and have won 4 straight games including 78-74 over Gonzaga in overtime in the WCC Championship. After advancing all the way to the sweet 16 in 2010, the Gaels were snubbed by the tournament selection committee last year. Purdue and St. Mary’s have never played in basketball before. The winner of this game will play either Kansas or Detroit in the next round.

Purdue has wins over Iona, Temple, Western Michigan, Miami, Iowa twice, Illinois twice, Minnesota, Northwestern twice, Nebraska twice, Michigan, and Penn St. The Boilermakers have losses to Alabama, Xavier, Butler, Penn St, Wisconsin, Michigan St twice, Michigan, Indiana twice, and Ohio St twice.

St. Mary’s has wins over Northern Iowa, Weber St, Missouri St, BYU twice, San Francisco 3 times, Gonzaga twice and Loyola Marymount. St. Mary’s has losses to Denver, Baylor, Loyola Marymount, Gonzaga and Murray St.

Purdue is outscoring opponents 72-66 this season. The Boilermakers shoot 44.1% from the field, including 37.7% from 3 point range. Purdue makes 65.2% of their free throws. The Boilermakers average 33 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of -0.6. Purdue averages 13.7 assists, 8.7 turnovers, 6.5 steals, and 3.2 blocks a game. Boilermaker opponents are shooting 44.6% from the field including 35.6% from 3 point range. Purdue forces 12.8 turnovers a game.

Purdue forward Robbie Hummel averages 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.2 blocks a game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks and is shooting 37.1% from 3 point range. Lewis Jackson averages 10.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists to lead the team, and 1.3 steals a game to lead the team. Ryne Smith averages 9.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. Smith shoots 43.8% from 3 point range. Terone Johnson averages 8.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1 steal a game.  Kelsey Barlow averages 8.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. D.J. Byrd averages 8.9 points and 2.3 rebounds a game. He is suspended indefinitely.

St. Mary’s is outscoring opponents 75-62 this season. The Gaels are shooting 47.5% from the field and 35% from 3 point range. St. Mary’s makes 72.7% of their free throws. The Gaels average 36.6 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +7.2. St. Mary’s averages 15.9 assists, 11.6 turnovers, 7 steals, and 3.1 blocks a game. Gael opponents are shooting 42.7% from the field, and 36.1% from 3 point range. St. Mary’s forces 12 turnovers a game.

St. Mary’s  guard Matthew Dellavedova averages 15.6 points to lead the team, 3.3 rebounds, and 6.4 assists to lead the team. He makes 36% of his 3 point shots. Forward Rob Jones averages 14.8 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. He leads the Gaels in rebounds.  Stephen Holt averages 10.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.8 steals a game to lead the team. He is out with a knee injury and is questionable for the NCAA tournament after missing the last 5 games. Clint Steindl, Jorden Page, and Brad Waldow also play significant minutes. Waldow leads the Gaels in blocks with 1 game. Guard Paul McCoy is out for the season.

St. Mary’s is 13-13 ATS and the total is 13-13 this season. Purdue is 16-14 ATS and the total is 19-11 this season. The Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 6-1 in NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 18-7-1 after failing to cover, 5-2 in Friday games, and as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 7-3 overall, and 3-8 in neutral site games, including 1-4 as an underdog. The Gaels are 4-0 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, 6-1 in Friday games, 10-4-1 as a neutral site favorite, 33-15-1 in non-conference games, 2-5 as a favorite, and 1-5 after a cover.

St Mary’s has been ranked in the top 25 most of the season and shouldn’t be intimidated by a middle of the road Big Ten team. Both teams are comfortable playing in the 70’s so there should be a lot of points scored. I like St. Mary’s to pull away late for the win.

Our college basketball handicappers are destroying the sports books during the tournament. Don’t miss out on any more winners this season.

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