Midwest Region Second Round: #4 Purdue Boilermakers vs #5 Iowa State Cyclones

2017 NCAA Tournament
Midwest Region – Second Round
#4 Purdue Boilermakers vs #5 Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, March 18, 2017, 9:40 pm Eastern, TV: TBS
BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Purdue -1
Current Line: Purdue Pick
Opening Total: 151 1/2
Current Total: 152 1/2
Opening Money Line: Purdue -115 / Iowa State -105
Current Money Line: Iowa State -115 / Purdue -105

Purdue and Iowa State meet in the Midwest region second round Saturday.

In a loaded Midwest Region, the #4 Purdue Boilermakers take on the #5 Iowa State Cyclones in the second round Saturday in Milwaukee. Purdue is 26-7 and won the Big Ten Regular season title at 14-4. Iowa State is 24-10 and finished in a three way tie for second in the Big 12 at 12-6. The winner between Purdue and Iowa State will advance to the Sweet 16 next week in Kansas City and face either #1 Kansas or #9 Michigan State. The series is tied 2-2 between Iowa State and Purdue. The Cyclones won the last meeting in Las Vegas in 2007.

Iowa State is coached by Steve Prohm. The Cyclones were the #4 seed in the Big 12 tournament but won it last week in Kansas City. The Cyclones beat Oklahoma State 92-83 in the quarters, TCU 84-63 in the semis and West Virginia 51-50 in the Championship game. Iowa State has won 10 of the last 11 games. The Cyclones beat #12 seed Nevada 84-73 in the first round Thursday. Iowa State is making their 19th trip to the tournament including six straight. The Cyclones look to return to the Sweet 16 for the sixth time overall and third time in the last four seasons.

Iowa State has a neutral site loss to Gonzaga in Orlando, home losses to Cincinnati, Kansas, and West Virginia, plus road losses at Iowa, Baylor, TCU, Vanderbilt, Texas and West Virginia. The Cyclones have home wins over Mount St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. Iowa State has neutral site wins over Indiana State and Miami in Orlando, plus road wins at Drake, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech. Iowa State is 19-12 ATS and the total is 19-12 this season. The Cyclones were 6 point favorites against Nevada and the total was 156.

Purdue is coached by Matt Painter. The Boilermakers were upset by #8 seed Michigan 74-70 in overtime in the Big Ten quarterfinals last week in Washington. Purdue beat #13 seed Vermont 80-70 in the first round Thursday. Purdue is making their 29th trip to the NCAA Tournament including three straight. Purdue looks to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010 and tenth time overall.

Purdue has home losses to Villanova, and  Minnesota, plus road losses at Louisville, Iowa, Nebraska and Michigan. The Boilermakers have home wins over McNeese State, Georgia State, Morehead State, Cleveland State, Norfolk State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan State, and Indiana. Purdue has road wins at Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern. The Boilermakers have neutral site wins over Utah State and Auburn in Cancun, Arizona State in New York City, and Notre Dame in Indianapolis. Purdue is 18-10-2 ATS this season and the total was 17-12-1 this season. The Boilermakers were 8.5 point favorites against Vermont and the total was 134.5.

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Iowa State is outscoring teams 81-72. The Cyclones are #27 in scoring nationally. Iowa State is shooting 46.9% from the field and 40.2% from 3 point range. The Cyclones are #13 in three point shooting nationally. ISU makes 69.8% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 42.8% from the field and 34.8% from 3 point range. Iowa State averages 34.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 36. The Cyclones average 15.8 assists, 10.2 turnovers, 7.9 steals and 3.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.5 assists, 14.4 turnovers, 4.6 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Monte Morris averages 16.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Nazareth Mitrou-Long averages 15.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Deonte Burton averages 14.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Matt Thomas averages 12 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Five other players will get time in the rotation. Center Stewart Nezlek is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

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Purdue is outscoring teams 80-67 this season. The Boilermakers are #35 nationally in scoring. Purdue is shooting 48% from the field and 40.6% from 3 point range. Purdue is #28 in field goal percentage and #5 in three point shooting nationally. The Boilermakers make 76.4% of their free throws and are #20 nationally. Opponents are shooting 41.3% from the field and 32.3% from three point range. The Boilermakers are #50 or better in both categories nationally. Purdue averages 38 rebounds per game and opponents average 28.6. The Boilermakers are #24 in rebounds allowed. Purdue averages 18.2 assists, 13.1 turnovers, 5.2 steals and 2.5 blocks per game. Opponents average 12.4 assists, 12 turnovers, 6.5 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.

Caleb Swanigan averages 18.5 points, 12.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. Isaas Haas averages 12.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Vince Edwards 12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Carsen Edwards averages 10.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Dakota Mathias averages 9.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Four other players will get time in the rotation. Forward Jacquil Taylor is out for the season with an ankle injury.

Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in Saturday games, 4-0 overall and in Saturday games, 7-1 after a cover, 7-2 against teams with straight up wins, 21-8 against teams with winning records, and 7-3 in NCAA Tournament games.

Purdue is 7-1-2 ATS in Saturday games, 5-1 in neutral site games and against Big 12 teams, 4-1 in NCAA Tournament games, 8-3-2 against teams with winning records, 21-8 in non-conference games, 20-8-1 after a straight up win, 16-7-2 overall and 13-6-2 after a cover.

This is a battle between the speed of Iowa State and the size of Purdue. The Boilermakers play slightly better defense but aren’t afraid to play in the 80’s just like Iowa State. I like Iowa State to win a close high scoring game.

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