Minnesota Timberwolves AT Denver Nuggets
April 9, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line: Den -14
Current Line: Den -13.5
Opening Total: 213
Current Total: 211
Opening Moneyline: Den -1300 / Min +850
Current Moneyline: Den -1400 / Min +980
Perhaps the only good thing left about this season for the Wolves is that it is almost over. They are currently tied with Cleveland for the worst record in the league and have won just 5 games on the road all year. Winning in the Pepsi Center won’t prove to be any easier as Denver tries to further solidify their lock on 5th place in the West. A 5th seed for Denver would mean a first round matchup against either Oklahoma City or Dallas, both of whom would have home court advantage against the Nuggets.
Kurt Rambis at this point just feels sorry for his team. It’s a state in professional sports we’d rather not hear about nor see. “I feel bad for our guys,” coach Kurt Rambis said following Wednesday’s 108-98 home loss to Phoenix. “It’s very hard emotionally on the players to go through a season like this.” What makes matters worse is that their best player Kevin Love has missed three straight games and may mis s another tonight. Without his rebounding (and scoring to a lesser degree), the Wolves are even worse than before. If Love plays, he has averaged 29 ppg and 16 rpg against the Nuggets in three meetings this year. In a 2 point loss on December 18th, Love put up a career high 43 points.
Denver is not without their injury problems though either. They are missing starter Aaron Afflalo and reserve big men Chris Andersen and Timofey Mosgov. “I think having some extra bodies, healthier bodies, would probably help us a little bit, too,” said Nuggets coach George Karl. Fortunately, for Karl and the Nuggets, they aren’t missing one of their crucial players like the Wolves.
Some betting trends:
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games. Minnesota is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 on the road. Minnesota is 0-5 SU in their last 5 on ther road and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games against the Nuggets. Minnesota is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Denver. Minnesota is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against the Denver Nuggets.
Denver is 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s lat 7 games. Denver is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games and they are 10-1 SU in their last 11 at home. Denver is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home. The total has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 against the Timberwolves. Denver is 5-0 SU in their last 5 against Minnesota and the Nuggets are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 against Minnesota. Denver is 7-1 SU in their last 8 at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home vs. the Timberwolves.
Key Matchups:
Ty Lawson & Ray Felton vs. Luke Ridnour & Johnny Flynn
It’s difficult to find a key matchup between these teams when Kevin Love isn’t playing for the Timberwolves. The situation at point guard should be entertaining though. Both teams have time share situations at the point and Ty Lawson and Felton have been playing extremely well, both on the court together and when at separate times. Ridnour is an average defender and should body up well enough on the perimeter to prevent easy penetration. Flynn has regressed seriously this year due to a lack of playing time. In the 51 games he’s been healthy for, Flynn has seen an average of only 18 minutes per game. To make matters worse, the second year point guard from Syracuse is shooting 35.8% from the field and is averaging 2.2 turnovers per game, which would project to 4.4 PER-36, among the worst of all players in the NBA.
Wilson Chandler vs. Michael Beasley
In a season which it is hard to draw positives from, the Timberwolves can draw some from the fact that a 2nd round pick netted their starting small forward, Michael Beasley, who promises to be a featured part of the building process in Minnesota. He’s increased his scoring avearge 4.2 points per game from last season in only 3 more minutes per game. He’s also stepped his three point shooting up to a career high (in terms of makes), shooting 36.9% on 2.1 attempts per game. His opponent, Wilson Chandler, is one of the most underrated players in the league and reminds me a lot of a young Shawn Marion. His stats have dipped significantly since joining Denver, but his versatility and ability to play three positions is a luxury for the Nuggets and his defense is solid at all three positions. Expect Beasley to score a lot tonight — Love is out — but Chandler will make him work.
This is far from a marquee matchup. With Denver all but clinching the 5th seed, there is little on the line tonight and the Timberwolves have every reason to mail it in and say they were without their star player.
