March Madness Odds, Picks: (9) Oklahoma Sooners vs (1) Virginia Cavaliers

(9) Oklahoma vs (1) Virginia

Time: 6:45 PM CST (Tru TV)

Spread: UVA -10.5

Total: 126

Odds c/o 5dimes


The Virginia Cavaliers finished the season with a No. 2 National ranking and 30-3 record. It defeated #16 Gardner-Webb by a 71-56 score in the first round. The game was tougher than the final score indicates, as the Cavaliers trailed the #16 seed by six points at the half, before outscoring it 40-21 in the second half. Virginia got 23 points from guard DeAndre Hunter, as he shot 9 of 16 from the field, also grabbing six rebounds and dishing out an assist. Virginia shot an outstanding 51 percent from the field in the win, but it struggled with the triple and its foul shots, knocking down just 7 of 23 from three and 8 of 13 from the line. Virginia also committed 15 turnovers, which were costly, but its talent took over in the second half of the game.

The Cavaliers were led by Kyle Guy and Hunter during the season, with both averaging 15.4 points per game and shooting 45 and 44 percent from three. Virginia took 663 threes on the season, which is a moderate amount, but the Cavaliers were extremely accurate on those attempts, shooting better than 40 percent as a team on the season. Ordinarily, free throws are not an issue for Virginia either: It shot a very respectable 74.6 percent as a team despite its opening round struggles there. The Cavaliers, of course, try to win games with defense. It limited opponents to just 55 points per game which was the stingiest defense in the nation. Scoring can be a problem for Virginia at times, but it is hardly as though a team that averages 71.8 points per game cannot score. It just prefers a grind it out pace, which allows the Cavaliers to maximize each possession and keep control over its opponents.


Oklahoma finished its season 19-13 with a 7-11 record in Big Ten Play. The Sooners had a tough second-half to it season and it concluded it by losing eight of its final 12 games. The Sooners lost by one-point to West Virginia in the first round of the Big 12 championship, despite getting 22 points from Brady Manek. Oklahoma also had just eight turnovers while shooting 45.2 percent from the field. Manek finished the season as the No. 2 scorer with 12 points and six rebounds per game, and he shot 35.4 percent from three on his 147 attempts.

Christian James leads OU in scoring at 14.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, and he attempted the most threes (184) while shooting at a 33.7 percent clip. The Sooners did not take a ton of threes outside of the pair, finishing with 619 attempts at a 34.2 team percentage. Oklahoma surrendered 68.2 points per game this season while scoring just 71.2 itself, good for a positive-3.0 point differential. The Sooners started the season 11-1 but encountered a lot of trouble in Big 12 play, which hardly bodes well. Its final record against ranked opponents was just 2-6, though it did defeat a then-No. 13 Kansas team 81-68.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

  • Sooners are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.
  • Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.
  • Sooners are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
  • Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Cavaliers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
  • Cavaliers are 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games overall.
  • Cavaliers are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up win.
  • Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.

OU TRENDS (C/o Covers):

  • Over is 8-3 in Sooners last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 16-6 in Sooners last 22 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Over is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
  • Over is 9-4 in Sooners last 13 neutral site games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. Big 12.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 Sunday games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
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