March Madness 2012 Predictions: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida Gators

No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Florida Gators
Friday, 3/16/12, 2:10 PM EST, TV:  TNT
Opening Point Spread:  Florida -2
Current Betting Line:  Florida -3.5
Opening Total:  121
Current Total:  121
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Florida Gators live and die with the 3-point shot

Virginia is seeded No. 10 in the West Region and travels to Omaha to play in the second round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament.  The Cavaliers have an all-time record of 22-16 in this event and reached the Final Four in 1981 and 1984.  The program has dropped three of its four games and gone “over” the total in three of those contests.  Injuries have started to take a toll on the roster and will put added pressure on senior forward Mike Scott, who is averaging 18.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS when playing with five or six days of rest the last two-plus seasons.

The Cavaliers will try and reach the 70-point plateau offensively, posting a 25-2 mark when doing so under head coach Tony Bennett.  Virginia is second nationally in allowing just 53.7 points per game, while sitting 11th in 3-point field goal percentage defense.  Scott was named a first-team All-ACC selection and named a third team All-American.  He will need help from sophomore guard Joe Harris, who has reached double figures in 37 career games.

Florida is set to make its 15th Big Dance appearance and owns a 29-12 all-time record in the event, including two national championships and three trips to the national final.  “It’s always an honor to be part of the NCAA Tournament and we’re excited about playing,” commented Gators head coach Billy Donovan.  The program finished its SEC schedule with a 10-6 record, which marked the 10th 10-win season in conference play over the past 14 years.  Florida is 4-0 ATS versus ACC opponents the last two-plus years.

The Gators have all five starters averaging in double figures and are led by junior guard Kenny Boynton, who is averaging 16.3 points per game.  Florida is the nation’s top 3-point shooting team in nailing 9.9 three-pointers per game.  Donovan has led the program to a solid 19-9 record versus ACC opponents during his time in Gainesville, including wins in six straight contests.  Offensively, the team ranks 26th nationally in scoring 76.3 points per game.

Bettors will likely back the Gators due to their 7-1 ATS mark in NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, while the Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games.

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