Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
Time: 10:30 AM CST
Spread: CMI -6.5
odds c/o 5dimes
The Miami (OH) Redhawks are 7-5, but it finished with a 6-2 mark in MAC play to win the East division. It will travel to face the Central Michigan Chippewas as 6.5-point underdogs in the MAC Championship Saturday at 10:30 AM (CST) on ESPN2. The betting total is set at 55 points according to NCAA football oddsmakers at 5dimes.
The Miami Redhawks had its five-game win streak snapped in its finale as it fell 27-41 to Ball State. Ball State’s four second-half touchdowns were enough to rally the Cardinals to a victory, which set up this MAC title game between two teams that finished with identical 6-2 marks in their respective divisions.
Miami was not a good offensive team this year, ranking No. 99 in rushing yards (137.8 per) and No. 115 in passing yards (170.9). The Redhawks averaged a negative point differential of -4.2, as it allowed 28.8 per game while scoring just 24.6 itself. Part of this is because the team faced the #1 team in college football (Ohio State) in Week 4 and lost 5-76. A season-opening loss to Iowa by a 14-38 count also hurt these overall statistics.
Redhawks quarterback Brett Gabbert struggled. He threw for nearly 2,000 yards but averaged just 53.9 percent completions and he threw eight interceptions to his 10 touchdowns. His passer rating was a humble 124.9. Gabbert did not rush at all, either. The Redhawks lead-rusher was Jaylon Bester, who totaled 623 yards and 11 touchdowns on his 132 carries.
Tyre Shelton was the No. 2 rusher with 494 yards and two touchdowns on 95 carries. The Redhawks averaged just 3.6 yards-per-carry as a team though. Miami has three receivers with over 300 yards on the season, but the trio has just six touchdowns between them. Miami scored just 10 receiving touchdowns on the season while totaling 19 via the rush. This is not a good offensive team, nor even that good of a team, but it was the best the MAC East has to offer.
Central Michigan concluded its season 8-4 with a 6-2 mark in MAC play. The Chippewas have better point differentials than its opponent, but its non-conference schedule was not quite as tough. Central Michigan was blown out in Week 2 by Wisconsin, but that was the only AP ranked opponent it faced all season. The Chippewas rank top-40 in both pass and rush offense though, and it generates 35.8 points per game while limiting opponents to 26.8.
Central Michigan quarterback Quinten Dormady had a strong season. He threw for 1,916 yards with an impressive 67 percent competition ratio while scoring 13 passing touchdowns with just five picks. His passer rating is a solid 152.8. Dormady was not a rushing threat, rushing for -18 yards on his 21 carries. Jonathan Ward, though, was a monster out of the backfield. Ward totaled over 1,000 yards with a 6.4 yard-per-carry average while scoring 15 touchdowns. No. 2 rusher Kobe Lewis was strong, too, with 5.6 yards per, while having scored 11 touchdowns and leading the team in carries (170).
The Chippewas had two receivers total over 700 yards this season with Kalil Pimpleton and JaCorey Sullivan combining for 120 catches between them and nine touchdowns. Central Michigan scored 18 receiving touchdowns this season while manning its other 33 scores via the rush. Tight end Tony Poljan caught 30 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns. Central Michigan can get the ball in the end zone a number of ways when it gets into the red zone.
(All Trends C/o Covers)
Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Redhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Redhawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Redhawks last 5 games in December.
Under is 5-1 in Redhawks last 6 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Redhawks last 6 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-2 in Redhawks last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Redhawks last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3 in Redhawks last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 37-16-1 in Redhawks last 54 games following a ATS loss.