MAC Friday Night Betting: Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas
Kelly / Shorts Stadium – Mt. Pleasant, Michigan
Friday, November 18, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Toledo -14 1/2
Current Line: Toledo -14 1/2
Opening Total: 71 1/2
Current Total: 73 1/2
Opening Money Line: Toledo -530 / CMU +445
Current Money Line: Toledo -605 / CMU +490

Toledo travels to Central Michigan in a crucial MAC game for the Rockets. Toledo is favored by 14 1/2 points on the road.

The 6-4 Toledo Rockets still have a shot of winning the MAC West Division if they win their last 2 games and Northern Illinois loses to Eastern Michigan next week.  Both the Rockets and Huskies are 5-1 in conference but NIU holds the tie breaker having beaten Toledo 63-60. But the Rockets have to take care of business on the road at 3-8 Central Michigan for any of that to happen. Toledo is coached by Tim Beckman and has home wins over New Hampshire 58-22, Eastern Michigan 54-16, Miami-Ohio 49-28, and last week against Western Michigan 66-63. It was the second straight game for the Rockets where both teams scored in the 60’s, after the loss to NIU. Toledo has road wins at Temple 36-13, and Bowling Green 28-21. The Rockets have additional losses at Ohio St 27-22, and Syracuse 33-30 in overtime, along with a home loss to Boise St 40-15. Toledo started off the season 1-3 but has won 5 out of 6 games since then. Central Michigan is coached by Dan Enos and has home wins over South Carolina St 21-6, and Northern Illinois 48-41, along with a road win at Akron 23-22. The Chippewas have road losses at Kentucky 27-13, Western Michigan 44-14, Michigan St 45-7, NC State 38-24, Ball St 31-27, and Kent St 24-21 along with home losses to Eastern Michigan 35-28 and last week against Ohio 43-28. The Chippewas are trying to avoid their third three game losing streak of the season as they wrap up the year in this game. The series between Toledo and Central Michigan is tied 18-18-3. Toledo won last year at home 42-31 to snap a 5 game losing streak against the Chips.

Last week, Toledo hosted Western Michigan. The Rockets were a 12 point favorites on the college football betting line and the total was 71 points. The two teams were tied at 28 at halftime and added another 73 points in the second half in a wild offensive shootout. Toledo took 14 point leads at two separate times in the second half, but Western Michigan fought back each time. Toledo kicked a field goal with less than 2 minutes left to make the score 66-56. Western Michigan scored to pull within 66-63 with a minute left but were unable to recover the onside kick, sealing the victory for the Rockets. The game was pretty sloppy on both sides as each team had 8 penalties and it featured 10 turnovers (6 by Toledo.) Each team had a defensive touchdown. Toledo had 804 total yards including 419 rushing yards. Rocket quarterback threw for 318 yards, with 3 touchdowns and an interception. Starter Austin Dantin left the game with a concussion and is listed as probable this week. He threw for 67 yards and an interception before the injury. Running back Adonis Thomas had 30 carries, 216 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches, 77 yards, and a touchdown. Morgan Williams had 10 carries, 76 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Kenny Stafford had 3 catches for 91 yards. Western Michigan had 635 total yards including 548 passing yards.

Toledo is averaging 490.9 yards a game including 272.3 passing yards and 218.6 rushing yards. The offense is #11 in the country. The Rockets are scoring 41.8 points a game which is #8 in the nation. Toledo only has 12 turnovers on the year and has allowed 9 sacks. The Rockets are 77/160 on third and fourth down conversions, and 40/44 scoring in the red zone with 33 touchdowns. Toledo allows 407.2 yards and 32.6 points a game. The Rockets give up 278.5 passing yards and 128.7 rushing yards. The pass defense is among the worst in the country ranking #108 out of 120 teams.  Toledo has forced 24 turnovers and 17 sacks this season. Rocket opponents are 59/153 on third and fourth down conversions, and 34/39 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. Toledo averages over 7 penalties a game for 60 yards. Toledo has 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns, but has allowed 5.

Dantin and  Owens have split the snaps this season. Dantin is 120/185 passing with 1,398 yards, 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 58 carries for 193 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Owens is 96/142 passing with 1,270 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and 28 carries for 121 yards. Thomas has 103 carries, 691 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 20 catches for 268 yards and a touchdown. Williams has 108 carries, 574 yards, and 11 touchdowns, along with 15 catches, 145 yards and 2 touchdowns.  David Fluellen has 87 carries, 454 yards, and 4 touchdowns, plus 16 catches, 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Eric Page has 85 catches, 882 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He also has a punt return for a touchdown, and has 1,717 all purpose yards. Bernard Reedy has 30 catches, 519 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Stafford has 19 catches, 248 yards, and a touchdown. Six other Toledo receivers have at least one touchdown catch, including the running backs. Kicker Ryan Casano is 49/50 on extra points and 8/11 on field goals with a long of 38 yards. Jeremiah Detmer handles the long field goals and is 3/3 with a long of 52 yards. Four Toledo defensive players are listed as questionable or out for this game.

Last week, Central Michigan hosted Ohio. The Bobcats were 7.5 point favorites. The game was close in the first half with Ohio up 17-14 at halftime. Ohio scored 12 third quarter points to go up by 15. CMU pulled to within 8 points with 5 minutes left but Ohio scored a late touchdown to make the final 43-28. Each team had a turnover and there were 19 combined penalties. The Chippewas had 427 total yards including 362 passing yards from quarterback Ryan Radcliff who had 3 touchdown passes and an interception. Receiver Courtney Williams had 6 catches, 133 yards and a touchdown catch. Titus Davis had 6 catches, 110 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Running back Zurlon Tipton had a rushing touchdown and 35 yards on the ground. Ohio had 527 total yards including 309 rushing yards.

Central Michigan is averaging 393.9 total yards and 23.1 points a game. The Chippewas are average 277.9 passing yards and 116 rushing yards a game. CMU has 22 turnovers and has allowed 14 sacks. Central is 61/162 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/28 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. The Chippewas are allowing 410.7 yards and 32.4 points a game on defense. CMU gives up 237.6 passing yards and 183.6 rushing yards a game. The Chips have forced 11 turnovers and 13 sacks. CMU opponents are 88/189 on third and fourth down conversions, and 40/49 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns. The Chippewas have one defensive touchdown this season.

Radcliff is 237/416 passing (57%) for 3,053 yards, 23 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Running back Anthony Garland has 83 carries, 378 yards, and a touchdown. Paris Cotton has 53 carries, 331 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and 11 catches, 166 yards, and 2 touchdown catches.   Tipton has 70 carries 331 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 113 yards. Tim Phillips has 54 carries, 214 yards, and a touchdown, along with 10 catches for 80 yards. He hasn’t played in four games and is listed as questionable for the Toledo game. Davis has 35 catches, 687 yards, and 6 touchdowns.  Cody Wilson has 47 catches, 522 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a foot injury and missed the last two games. David Blackburn has 34 catches, 479 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Jerry Harris and  Williams also get significant targets, and could get even more if Wilson can’t go. Williams has 5 touchdown catches, and Harris has 2. Kicker David Harman is 30/30 on extra points and 12/15 on field goals with a long of 45. The Chippewas have 9 players listed as questionable or out including 3 defensive players and 3 offensive linemen.

Central Michigan is 1-10 against the spread this season and the total is 8-3 in those games. Toledo is 5-5 ATS and the total is 6-4 this year. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total between the two teams and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records, 7-1 after allowing more than 40 points in the last game, 4-1 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 13-5 after failing to cover, 2-5 on turf, 2-7 as a road favorite including 1-4 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, and 1-5-1 after scoring 40 points or more in their last game. The Chippewas are 5-2-1 as a home dog of 10.5 points or more, 2-6-1 in Friday games, 2-6 at home, 5-16 overall, 3-12-1 after failing to cover, 1-4 after allowing 40 points or more in the last game, 2-12 after a straight up loss, 1-7 after a double digit home loss, 0-5 in conference, against teams with winning records, and on turf, and 0-4 as an underdog.

Central Michigan has been one of the worst teams against the spread this season with only one cover in 10 games. The Chippewas really have nothing to play for except pride on Senior day as they end their season tonight. Toledo has to win this game and should win rather easily. Expect lots of points as neither defense is that great.

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