MAC College Football Picks: Bowling Green (OH) Green Falcons at Ohio Bobcats

Big South TournamentBowling Green (OH) – Ohio
Time: 2 PM ET
Spread: BG -1
Total: 66

Odds courtesy of Bovada

The Bowling Green Falcons are 4-2 on the season with a 2-0 record in the MAC. The Falcons will face the Ohio Bobcats as one-point favorites, with a point total set at 66 by college football oddsmakers.

The Falcons have had an excellent pass attack which has rendered them potent offensively. BG has amassed 319.3 passing yards per game, while also managing 182.2 via the rush. Bowling Green averages 37.3 points per game, while giving up 42.2. That lack of defense has prevented the Falcons from beating the likes of Western Kentucky and Wisconsin, giving up 59 and 68 points to the two programs, respectively.

BG easily beat VMI on Sept 6, squeaked by Indiana on Sept 13, and defeated UMass and Buffalo the last two weeks. QB James Knapke has thrown for 1,559 yards on the season at a 60.4 percent clip. He’s managed just 6.7 yards per attempt though, and has nearly thrown as many INTs (7) as TDs (8). Accordingly, his passer rating is 122.8.

The Falcons have scored 17 TDs, two of which have come from Knapke. His top two backs, Travis Greene and Fred Coppet, have combined for 768 yards and 12 TDs. Andre Givens has also contribute well with 126 yards and two TDs.

Knapke has four receiving options with 200 yards or more on the season. His No. 1 target Roger Lewis has 595 yards on 45 receptions with three TDs. Ronnie Moore leads the team in receiving TDs with four, while also leading the team in yards per reception (15.0, min. 10 receptions).

Ohio is 3-3 on the season with a 1-1 record in the MAC. The Bobcats have ranked low offensively though, 101st in the nation in pass yardage and 73rd in rushing yardage. The offensive ineptitude has caused the Bobcats to average just 19 points per game, while the ‘D’ surrenders 24.8 per game. The Bobcats lost 28-10 to Central Michigan last week.

JD Sprague and Derrius Vick split the QB duties, but the Bobcats will hope that leading rusher A.J. Oullette is able to go. He’s nursing an ankle injury and has led the team in rushing yardage thus far (288 per game). Vick and Sprague are able to fill in well here. with both having rushed for over 100 yards on the season, and Vick has 193 with 7.7 yards per attempt. Vick is also a better passer, with a 61.5 percent clip compared to Sprague’s 49.5 percent. Vick has a better TD/INT ratio of 4:1 to Sprague’s 1:2.

With Oullette out, the major choice in the backfield will be Daz’mond Patterson, who has rushed for 264 yards on the season with a 4.5 yard per carry average. He has yet to score a TD on the season, but Sprague can get it in the end zone via QB rushes.

If the Bobcats are unable to get it in the end zone, Josiah Yazdani has hit 5-of-5 FG attempts from 20 to 39 yards, and is 3-of-4 from 40 to 49 yards with a long one of 46 yards. It could make the difference in what college football oddsmakers expect to be a very close game.

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