Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Betting Picks: Navy Midshipmen vs Arizona St Sun Devils

2012 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Saturday, December 29, 2012, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Navy Midshipmen vs Arizona State Sun Devils
AT&T Park – San Francisco, California
Opening Line: Arizona St -14 1/2
Current Line: Arizona St -13 1/2
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: Arizona St -600 / Navy +475
Current Money Line: Arizona St -525 / Navy +425

Arizona St is a heavy favorite against Navy in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Saturday in San Francisco. This is the first ever meeting between the schools.

The 8-4 Navy Midshipmen and the 7-5 Arizona St Sun Devils face each other for the first time Saturday’s Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco. Navy is 7-9-1 all time in bowls. The Midshipmen have lost 4 of their last 5 bowl games, including 35-14 to San Diego St in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl. Arizona St is 12-12-1 all-time in bowl games. The Sun Devils have lost 3 straight bowl games, including 56-24 to Boise St in the Las Vegas Bowl last season.

Navy is coached by Ken Niumatalolo. Navy has losses to Notre Dame 50-10 in Dublin, Ireland, at Penn St 34-7, and Troy 41-31 along with a home loss to San Jose St 12-0. The Midshipmen have won 8 of their last 10 games after an 0-2 start. Navy has home wins over VMI 41-3, Indiana 31-30, Florida Atlantic 24-17, and Texas St 21-10. Navy has road wins at Central Michigan 31-13, Air Force 28-21 in overtime,  and East Carolina 56-28. Navy also beat Army in Philadelphia 17-13 to close out the regular season and claim the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.  The Midshipmen are 4-8 ATS and the total is 3-8 this season.

Navy is averaging 387.7 yards per game including 111.2 passing yards and 276.4 rushing yards per game. Navy is #6 in rushing nationally and #121 out of 124 teams passing. The Midshipmen are outscoring teams 25-23 this season. Navy has 18 turnovers this season, and has also forced 18 on defense. The Midshipmen are 75/167 on third and fourth down conversions, and 37/46 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns. Navy has allowed 20 sacks, and averages 28 penalty yards per game. On defense, the Midshipmen are allowing 388.9 yards per game including 210.9 passing and 178 rushing yards. Navy has forced 18 sacks this season. Midshipmen opponents are 81/175 on third and fourth down conversions and 32/45 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns.

Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds has completed 56 of 97 passes (57.7%) for 884 yards with 8 touchdowns and an interception. He has 140 carries, 628 yards and 10 touchdowns. Trey Miller started the season but has missed the last 7 games with an ankle injury.He isn’t listed on the injury report and could get some snaps or even some carries at running back. He has just under 700 combined passing and rushing touchdowns, with 4 total touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Running back Gee Gee Greene has 108 carries, 765 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 303 yards with 2 touchdowns. Noah Copeland has 152 carries, 691 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 87 yards.Receiver  Brandon Turner has 20 catches for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns. Shawn Lynch has 14 catches, 281 yards, and a touchdown. Casey Bolena has 13 catches for 141 yards and a touchdowns. The passing game is more of an afterthought in the triple option though.

Arizona St is coached by Todd Graham and finished 5-4 in the Pac 12. After a 5-1 start, ASU lost 4 games in a row. However, they did win their last two games of the season.  The Sun Devils have losses at Missouri 24-20, Oregon St 36-26, and USC 38-17 and home losses to Oregon 43-21 and UCLA 45-43. The Sun Devils have home wins against Northern Arizona 63-6, Illinois 45-14, Utah 37-7, and Washington St 46-7, along with road wins at Cal 27-17, Colorado 51-17 and Arizona 41-34 to close out the regular season. The Sun Devils are 7-5 ATS and the total is 5-6 this season.

Arizona St is averaging 449.2 yards per game including 258.5 passing yards and 190.8 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are outscoring opponents 36-24 this season. ASU is 45th or better nationally in total offense, passing, rushing and scoring. The Sun Devils are +6 in turnovers with 23 giveaways. ASU has allowed 37 sacks and averages 36 penalty yards per game. The Sun Devils are 82/204 on third and fourth down conversions and 51/66 scoring in the red zone with 39 touchdowns. On defense, Arizona St is allowing 350.8 yards per game including 178.8 passing yards and 172 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are #26 in total defense and #12 against the pass. They have forced 49 sacks and 29 turnovers this season. Sun Devil opponents are 76/212 on third and fourth down conversions, and 33/41 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. The Sun Devils have 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly has completed 224 of 340 passes (65.9%) for 2,772 yards with 25 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 127 carries for 435 yards. Kelly has been sacked 31 times this season.Back-up Michael Eubank usually takes a few snaps a game. He has 330 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 56 carries, 185 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Cameron Marshall has 127 carries, 524 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 12 catches, 80 yards, and a touchdown.  D.J. Foster has 101 carries, 492 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 36 catches, 522 yards, and 4 touchdowns.  Marion Grice has 89 carries, 520 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 39 catches, 406 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

Receiver Chris Coyle has 53 catches, 659 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Rashad Ross has 33 catches, 471 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He also has a kick return for a touchdown. Jamal Miles has 35 catches for 352 yards. Kevin Ozier has 21 catches, 324 yards and 5 touchdowns. Five defensive players are on the ASU injury report as questionable or out.

Navy is 4-1 ATS after scoring less than 20 points, 5-2 in bowl games, 11-5 against teams with winning records, 2-5 in December, 1-4 after a straight up win, in non-conference games, and after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 1-5 after allowing 20 points or less, 0-4 overall, and after passing for less than 170 yards.

Arizona St is 5-2 ATS after allowing more than 450 yards, 7-3 on grass, 2-6 after scoring more than 40 points and after rushing for more than 200 yards, 1-4 against teams with winning records, 1-5 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, and 0-4 in bowl games.

This line might be a little too high. Arizona St is great against the pass, but struggles to stop the run. The Sun Devils could find it difficult to solve Navy’s option offense. Although, Navy isn’t equipped to get into a shootout with Arizona St either. I think Navy hangs around the 14.5 point number and gets the cover.

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