Arizona Diamondbacks AT Kansas City Royals
June 23, 2011 at 8:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: ARI -130, KC +110
Current Moneyline: ARI -117, KC -103
Opening Total: 8.5
Current Total: 8
SP: ARI- Daniel Hudson, KC- Felipe Paulino
Daniel Hudson has been very good of late. He’s won 8 games so far this season, and a win here would set a career high for the 24 year old. Last season, Hudson won7 games and lost only one, while recording a ridiculously good 1.69 ERA. He pitched 79 23rds innings and his WHIP may have been even more impressive at 0.84. When you’re allowing a runner only 84% of the innings you pitch, it becomes difficult to lose a lot of contests.
In a complete game on Friday, he helped the Diamondbacks win 4-1 over the White Sox. He gave up one home run and two other hits, but improved his already good .
“He was throwing 3-2 changeups to guys. That is confidence. That is maturity,” White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said.
Hudson started the season poorly with a 5.92 ERA in his first four outings. Since that time he has won 8 of 9 decisions and compiled a 2.82 ERA over that stretch. Most of those starts were quality ones and he lasted longer than six innings in all of them.
The most important thing for Diamondback players, however, is simply that they are winning. “Guys are starting to believe in themselves. Guys are having fun and winning games and it’s pretty contageous,” said Diamondbacks outfielder and first baseman Xavier Nady. Nady has hit .260 this season with 22 RBIs in 131 plate appearances. It’s not standout good, but it isn’t horrible either. In seasons in which he played at least 100 games the best BA he ever posted was .278.
Justin Upton has been red hot, however. In his last 9 games he is hitting .514 (19 of 37) and has 8 RBIs. He had only one hit against the Royals’ Felipe Paulino, but it left the park.
Paulino posted a 2.78 ERA in his four starts prior to the last one. That game he gave up 4 runs and 4 walks in 6 innings, while failing to record a decision or pick up a quality start. Paulino has never thrown more than 100 innings in a season, and so far in 4 starts and one other appearance he has logged 27 innings. He has yet to record a decision this year despite his 2.33 ERA this season.
Some betting trends:
Arizona is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games. Arizona is 5-0 SU in their last 5 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 8 of the last 12 games against the Royals. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Royals while the Diamondbacks are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road in Kansas City.
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 at home. The total has gone OVER in 8 of the last 12 games between the Royals and Diamondbacks. The Royals are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games against the Diamondbacks. The Royals are 1-6 SU in the last 7 games at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Given Hudson’s dominance, it seems prudent to bet on the Diamondbacks in this one. It’s not that Paulino is bad. He is, however, inexperienced and a far inferior choice than Daniel Hudson.