Handicapping Double Digit Favs: Big Favorites Covering Big Numbers

TCU Football
TCU was favored by 50 last week and covered
How many points are too much? When it comes the first two weeks of the college football season, the top teams are laying some big chalk.  And guess what, they are covering a lot of the time. They may be called square bettors who lay the wood, but they are cashing tickets.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide laid 40 points in week 1 against San Jose State and covered. They had a tougher game against Penn State and easily covered the two touchdown spread. This week, Bama is traveling to face Duke. It’s already a 23-point favorite.  After facing the top team in the country, Penn State coach Joe Paterno had a short post-game press conference. “I am in no mood,” he said.  When you do not have the play makers, it can make for a long afternoon.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes were 28-point favorites to Marshall in week 1 and 9-point favorites to Miami, Fla., in week 2. They covered both relatively easily. Now, they are playing Ohio and are 31 1/2-point favorites.  The Buckeyes have not covered the past two times they played Ohio, but this year’s squad appears to have more offensive firepower. Ohio State does not make many mistakes.  “When you can create four takeaways, you’re going to have a chance,” Ohio State coach Jim Tressel said in a report. “And when you have zero giveaways, you’re going to have a real good chance.”

Oklahoma: The Sooners failed to cover the big number in week 1 against Utah State, but came back in week 2 and dismantled Florida State. This week, they face Air Force and are 18 point favorites.  “I wasn’t worried about last week,” Bob Stoops said in a report about Utah State after beating Florida State. “I know what we’re capable of when we’re able to play all of our defense, use our blitzes, use our different coverage schemes. And I thought we did them well.”

Texas Christian: TCU was in a tough game in the opener and won, but failed to cover against Oregon State. But last week, they were a 50-point favorite and covered against Tennessee Tech, 62-7. This week, the Horned Frogs, a 21-point favorite, face Baylor. The last three touchdowns TCU scored, it did not throw a pass. Tennessee Tech could not stop even simple running plays.  “I didn’t want to score the last touchdown. We don’t do style points. … That’s not the program that we are, period. I did not want to score 60,” TCU coach Gary Patterson said in a report. “I’m not unhappy. I’m just not going to come in here jumping up and down.” 

Some times, the better teams are that much better. Just how much chalk is too much chalk? The books are trying to get a handle on that but the next time you look at the betting board dont just automatically think no way this time can cover that.  Maddux is offering up 7 college football predictions on this weeks card, dont miss these easy point spread winners.

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