Giants Seek 5th Straight Win: Indians Vs Giants Betting Preview

Cleveland Indians (40-35) AT San Francisco Giants (43-34)
June 26, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
Opening Line:  SF- 140, CLE +120
Current Line:  SF -140, CLE +120
Opening Total:  7.5
Current Total: 7

SP:  CLE- Fausto Carmona; SF- Madison Bumgarner

The young Bumgarner suffered his worst career outing in his last start, and tied major league history for one of the worst starts to a game ever.

Madison Bumgarner had a wickedly bad performance in his last outing, but that doesn’t happen often with the 21 year old youngster, who went 7-6 in his rookie year with a 3.00 ERA.  There were concerns late last season as the velocity of his fastball plummeted 5 mph but he blamed poor mechanics and poor conditioning for the fall off.

As last season went on, he worked harder and got stronger and has all the makings of a major league stud.  While is 4.06 ERA isn’t that impressive this year (Baseball Prospectus predicted a 3.84 ERA, so it’s not far off expectatons), he certainly has time to improve on it and make this season a better success, as he has started only 3-9.  He has had the lowest run support in the NL this season at 2.77, so the record is pretty much beyond his control at this point, until the offense steps up.

He gave up 9 runs in 1/3rd of an inning last outing, and that is why his ERA is so disgusting.  In his ten starts prior to last one, he had a 2.03 ERA over that span, but the Twins were too much, too hot, and began the game with eight consecutive hits.  We’re ALL entitled to bad days, and Bumgarner had one, but to expect to be the start of a slump might be saying a bit too much.

“It was pretty pathetic of me trying to execute pitches,” Bumgarner lamented,  “Everything was in the middle of the plate and up. They did what they were supposed to do. They’re supposed to hit that pitch and they did. Obviously, it was terrible pitch execution.”

With Fausto Carmona, there is more than enough reason for disappointment and concerns about his pitching.  In his last 7 starts, he has gone 1-6 with a 9.24 ERA.  He gave up 7 runs in 4 2/3rds innings in an 8-7 loss to the Rockies on Monday and the Rockies produced six of those runs in the fifth inning, which Carmona was unable to get through.  On the season, Carmona is 4-9 with a 5.98 ERA.  It’s pretty disgusting stuff when you consider he had a very respectable 3.77 ERA last sesaon, while going 13-14.  He doesn’t strike out enough hitters –  less than 6 per 9 innings, and his stuff is middling at best, so many may have forseen this coming.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland’s last 9 games and the Indians are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.  The Indians are 1-4 SU in their last 5 on the road and the total has gone UNDEr in 4 of their last 6 on the road.  The total has also gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 6 games against San Francisco, while the Indians are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against the Giants.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.  They are 5-1 SU in their last 6 at home and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Giants’ last 16 home games.  It has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 against the Cleveland Indians while the Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 against Cleveland.

The Giants are trying to win their fifth game in a row for the third time this season and all indications are that they should make a serious run at a pennant this year.  The Indians, however, have not been swept this year, and they will seek to avoid that tonight.  The Indians will have to provide a lot of run support for Carmona to pick up the win, and it’s surprising that the Giants aren’t more heavy favorites than they are, both to open betting, and currently.

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