Philadelphia Phillies (25-15) AT Saint Louis Cardinals (23-19)
May 17, 2011 at 8:15 PM EST
Opening Moneyline: STL -145, PHI +125
Current Moneyline: STL -158, PHI +138
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 7
SP: PHI- R. Oswalt, STL- J. Garcia
The Cardinals redeemed themselves from a three game sweep in Monday’s 3-1 victory over the Phillies. Tonight, with Jaime Garcia taking the mound, there’s little concern that the Cardinals won’t be able to turn in a repeat performance. Garcia owned the Phillies last year in his rookie season and has been among the best starters in the young 2011 season. A victory tonight would put him in the NL lead for wins with six.
Philadephia, despite having a strong 25-15 record, has struggled lately. In their last three games they have managed just six runs and accumulated a mere 12 hits. “We haven’t been hitting the ball for quite a while,” manager Charlie Manuel said.
A loss today would be the first four game losing streak the Phillies have endured since late August of last season, but Garcia is going to make life difficult on them with his 1.89 ERA and in his 17 starts on the road against the Cards, he has a 1.46 ERA.
Despite not even being at his best, to his own admission, he still only gave up one run over seven innings in a 9-1 victory over the Brewers. “It wasn’t my best day out there,” Garcia said. “But I was just trying to find a way. If one pitch wasn’t working, you go to the next one. You try to give your team a chance to win. And I feel like I did a pretty good job of that.”
The Phillies will send Roy Oswalt to the mound. Oswalt has a 3-1 record with a 3.33 ERA. He hasn’t pitched since April 26th. He gave up 5 runs in 3 innings that outing against the Diamondbacks, then went on the DL with lower back inflammation. He had one minor league outing at single-A and gave up 3 runs and 7 hits in five innings. Oswalt is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA in his last 6 starts against the Cardinals. Oswalt’s PECOTA projection called for 14-9 record with a 3.44 ERA. The injury set him back, but the projection certainly speaks of his typical potential production.
Some betting trends:
The Phillies are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and 2-4 SU in their last 6 on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philly’s last 9 games against Saint Louis and the Phillies are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against the Cards. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philly’s last 9 games on the road in St. Louis and the Phillies are 1-4 SU in their last 5 on the road against the Cards.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis’ last 7 games and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home and the Cards are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home. The Cards are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Cards’ last 9 games against the Phillies. The Cards are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home against the Phillies.
The Phillies may be in trouble if Oswalt isn’t feeling up to par yet. Garcia is a stud pitcher and will give the Phillies all they can handle.