Minnesota Twins (1-3)  AT New York Yankees  (3-1)
April 5, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
SP:  Minnesota – B. Duensing / NYY – C.C. Sabathia
Opening runline:  NYY -1.5
Moneyline:  NYY -210 / MIN +180
Opening Total:  9
Current Total: 8.5

Minnesota lost the opening game of the series to the Yankees due to the Yankees getting off in innings one and two, scoring 4 runs, 4 that would never be eclipsed by the Twins.  Robinson Cano went 2 of 4 and Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both drove home 2 RBIs, Rodriguez aided by a 1st inning homer with 2 outs.

Justin Morneau had a decent game for the Twins, hitting 2 of 4 from the plate and scoring a run, while Jim Thome hit a two run double.  Ivan Nova picked up the win for the Yankees.  PECOTA predicts Nova to go 6-8 this season with a 5.23 ERA.  Part of the reason for the poor numbers may be attributed to Nova going down the wrong path at the end of the season, however.

Sabathia is a different story than Nova, of course, as one of the aces of the Yankees’ staff.  Sabathia has beat the Twins his last 7 starts against them and Sabathia’s PECOTA renders him with a 15-9 record and a 3.26 ERA, which would again rank him near the top of the best starting pitchers in the AL.

“We’ve just played a little better than they have the last couple of years,” Sabathia told the Yankees’ official website.

Duensing, a southpaw, has been a boon for the Twins staff.  Last season his 10-3 record and 2.62 ERA made him one of the Twins best rotation pitchers, though PECOTA isn’t as optimistic this season, projecting an 8-7 W-L for Duensing with a 4.37 ERA.  The reasons for the decline are hard to pin point, as Duensing has an array of effective pitches, though his fastball tops out in the low 90s.  Also worth noting are the struggles he had in the post season last year when he posted an 11.25 ERA over two starts, hinting that he may be over rated afterall.  This will be the Yankees’ first game of the season against a left handed pitcher, as well.

Some betting trends:

Minnesota is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 on the road.  Minnesota is 2-9 SU in their last 11 on the road and they are 2-18 SU in their last 20 against the Yankees.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 games against the Yankees and the total has also gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 road games at Yankee Stadium.  Lastly, Minnesota is 1-14 SU in their last 15 road games against the Yankees.

New York is 4-2 SU over their last 6 games and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 games.  The total has also gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 at home.  The Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home and they are 18-2 SU in their last 20 against the Twins.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 against Minnesota and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of the last 7 at home against the Twins.  New York is 14-1 SU in their last 15 at home against the Minnesota Twins.

For Minnesota to win, their top players are going to have to step up.  Joe Mauer is 1 of 11 this season; Justin Morneau is 3 for 14; and Delmon Young is 2 of 16.  The inefficiency has rendered the Twins with a .208 batting average through their first four games.