Friday Night NCAA Football Betting Preview: Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos

Big South Tournament

Air Force at Boise State

Time: 8 PM CST Friday

Spread: BOI -8

Total: 55

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Boise State Broncos are 3-0 and in possession of a No. 20 AP Ranking after defeating Florida State 36-31 in Week 1, Marshall 14-7 in Week 2, and knocking off Portland State 45-10 in week 3.

The Broncos racked up 341 passing yards and 150 rushing yards while limiting Portland State to 244 total yards and just one touchdown. The Broncos appear to be legitimately AP ranked, as a squad that could easily stick in the top 25 and land itself in a major bowl game.

Week 4 it hosts Air Force as 8-point favorites in a game that will kick-off 8 PM CST Friday night on ESPN 2. The over/under is set at 55 total points.


Boise State undoubtedly most earned its ranking with the win it put together over Florida State in week 1. The Broncos won in Tallahassee, as Hank Bachmeier passed for 407 yards on 30 of 51 passing with a TD and one pick. The Broncos rushed for another 214 yards on 57 attempts, with Robert Mahone’s 142 yards and two touchdowns leading the way. Bachmeier was not successful rushing on his own, going seven times for a total loss of 13 yards. But the Boise State Broncos had five receivers with at least 33-yards on the day, paced by CJ Thomas’ five catches for 103 yards.

Bachmeier is completing 61.8 percent of his passes this year on 68 of 110 passing thus far. He has thrown four TDs and three interceptions, and he has suffered 10 sacks through three games. All are areas he must improve, but George Holani and Mahone are doing major work in the backfield for the Broncos. Holani has 216 yards, a 5.1 yard-per-carry average, and Mahone has 215 yards, a 5.8 yard-per-carry average, and two touchdowns. Thomas ranks No. 2 in receiving yards with 164 on the season, while the Broncos are led by Khalil Shakir’s 237 yards on a team-high 17 catches. Shakir has just one TD reception to Thomas’ two, and John Hightower has a pair of TD catches to his name. The Broncos have scored six TDs via the pass and four via the rush, but the balance will serve it well this week and throughout the season.


Air Force is 2-0 after defeating Colgate and Colorado. The Falcons crept by Colorado in Overtime, as Kadin Remsberg rushed for 25-yards to start OT. The Falcons rallied from down 13-points in the game to improve to 1-0 on the road this season. Donald Hammond III did attempt 12 passes for the Falcons for 155 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, but Air Force in typical fashion was rush-heavy with 289 rushing yards. Kadin Remsberg had 146 of those on 23 carries, and the Falcons averaged 5.6 yards-per-carry on the game with Hammond rushing six times for 22 yards and a TD.

Air Force has relied heavily on Remsberg and Taven Birdow. Remsberg has 208 yards on the season on 32 attempts, while Birdow has 21 attempts for 147 yards. Five others have 20-yards or more through three games, but the Falcons are focusing mostly on Remsberg and exploiting his talents in the best way possible from week to week. In Week 1, the Falcons only attempted one pass play but that came at the hands of Isaiah Sanders. With Hammond available, it appears this team will at least run a number of pass plays to maximize his talents as a quarterback, but then again it really may not.

We have yet to see if Air Force is going to alter its annual M.O. much this season.

ATS TRENDS (Trends C/o Covers):

Air Force
  • Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in September.
  • Falcons are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
Boise State
  • Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
  • Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.
  • Broncos are 7-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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