Friday Night College Football Betting Picks: Navy Midshipmen at Central Michigan Chippewas

Navy Midshipmen at Central Michigan Chippewas
Friday, October 12, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Kelly/Shorts Stadium – Mount. Pleasant, Michigan
Opening Line: Navy – 2 1/2
Current Line: Central Michigan -2
Opening Total: 57
Current Total: 60
Opening Money Line: Navy -130 / Central Michigan +110
Current Money Line: Central Michigan -125 / Navy +105

Central Michigan hosts Navy Friday night. The Chippewas are 2 point favorites in a battle of 2-3 teams.

The Navy Midshipmen travel to Mount Pleasant, Michigan Friday night to take on the Central Michigan Chippewas. This is one of those games that would receive very little interest from bettors if it was played on a normal Saturday, but since it is on Friday night and nationally televised people will play the game when they normally wouldn’t in a battle of 2-3 teams that will struggle to even be bowl eligible. This is the third meeting ever between the Midshipmen and the Chippewas. Navy leads the series 2-0, including a 38-37 win in Annapolis in 2010. This is the first ever meeting between the schools in Michigan.

Navy is coached by Ken Niumatalolo. The Middies have wins at home against VMI 41-3 and last week at rival Air Force 28-21 in overtime. Navy has losses to Notre Dame 50-10 in Dublin, Ireland, 34-7 at Penn St, and 12-0 at home against San Jose St. The Midshipmen are 2-3 ATS and the total is 1-3 this season. Navy was a 9 point underdog at Air Force last week, and the total was 54.5.

Navy is averaging 349 yards per game including 116.6 passing yards and 232.4 rushing yards per game. Navy is 16th in rushing nationally but they are normally in the top 10, along with the other service academies and Georgia Tech who all run some variation of the run-first option offense. The Midshipmen are being outscored 24-17.2 this season. Navy has 12 turnovers this season, and has forced 7 on defense. The Midshipmen are 24/68 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/15 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns. Navy has allowed 13 sacks in 5 games. On defense, the Midshipmen are allowing 389.6 yards per game including 196.8 passing and 192.8 rushing yards. Navy has forced 9 sacks this season. Midshipmen opponents are 34/70 on third and fourth down conversions and 11/16 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns.

Navy quarterback Trey Miller leads the Midshipmen in rushing and passing. He has completed 34 of 58 passes (58.6%) for 381 yards with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. He has 87 carries, 291 yards and 3 touchdowns. Miller has been sacked 8 times. Miller is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury suffered last week against Air Force. Back-up Keenan Reynolds usually takes a few snaps and carries a game. He has a rushing touchdown on 17 carries, and is 10/13 passing for 132 yards. Running back Noah Copeland has 62 carries, 274 yards and a touchdown, along with 8 catches for 49 yards. Gee Gee Greene has 34 carries, 253 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 92 yards. Receiver Shawn Lynch has 8 catches, 149 yards, and a touchdown. Casey Bolena has 10 catches for 112 yards. Brandon Turner has 9 catches for 107 yards.

Central Michigan is coached by Dan Enos. The Chippewas have wins at home against SE Missouri St 38-27 and a road upset at Iowa 32-31. CMU has losses at home to Michigan St 41-7 and at Northern Illinois 55-24 and Toledo 50-35. The Chips were outscored by a combined 40-7 in the fourth quarter in those two games. In both games, CMU had a shot to win going into the fourth quarter but were blown out to start off MAC conference play 0-2. The Chippewas are 1-4 ATS and the total is 3-0-1 this season.

Central Michigan is averaging 394 yards per game including 257.2 passing yards and 136.8 rushing yards. The Chippewas are being outscored 40.8-27.2 this season. CMU has 10 turnovers and has forced 5 this season. The Chips have allowed 5 sacks this season. CMU is 28/69 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/15 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. On defense, Central Michigan is allowing 457.6 total yards per game including 224.2 passing yards and 233.2 rushing yards a game. It doesn’t bode well for the Chippewas that they have the 117th best rushing defense in the country as they take on Navy. The Chippewas have forced 5 sacks this season. CMU opponents are 36/79 on third and fourth down conversions, and 26/28 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns.

CMU quarterback Ryan Radcliff has completed 105/179 passes (58.7%) for 1,286 yards with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Running back Zurlon Tipton has 72 carries, 447 yards, and 6 touchdowns along with 7 catches, 66 yards and a touchdown. Anthony Garland has 39 carries, 176 yards and a touchdown along with 3 catches for 15 yards. Receiver Cody Wilson has 33 catches, for 394 yards. Titus Davis has 19 catches, 378 yards and 4 touchdowns. Courtney Williams has 17 catches, 189 yards with 2 touchdowns.

Navy is 10-2 ATS against teams with losing home records, 66-31 overall, 4-9 against teams with losing records, 2-7 overall, in October, and after allowing less than 170 yards passing, 1-4 after a cover, after rushing for more than 200 yards, and after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 1-7 against MAC teams, and 0-5 in Friday games.

Central Michigan is 7-19 on fieldturf, 2-6 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 5-17-1 after failing to cover, 1-4 in Friday games, 1-4 at home against teams with losing road records, 5-21 overall, 3-13 after passing for more than 280 yards, 3-14 after a straight up loss, 1-5 against teams with losing records, and in non-conference games, 1-11 in October, and 0-5 at home.

Neither of these teams can stop the run. Central Michigan gains most of their yards in the passing game though. Navy has a pretty good  pass defense as they rank 30th in the country. I think that will be the difference, as Navy pulls off the mild upset on the road even without Miller. The Midshipmen opened as 2.5 point road favorites before Navy announced Reynolds would start.

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