Free NFL Picks: Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 11/20/11, 4:15 PM EST, TV:  CBS
Opening Point Spread:  Atlanta -6.5
Current Betting Line:  Atlanta -6
Opening Total:  44
Current Total:  44
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Falcons Panthers NFL Game Preview
Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner has scored six touchdowns in the last six games

Tennessee has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, coming in off a dominating 30-3 win over the Carolina Panthers as 3.5-point road underdogs, winning the statistical battle by 104 yards.  The Titans were led offensively by star running back Chris Johnson, who seems to be getting into gear after missing the entire preseason, running for a season-high 130 rushing yards and also accumulating 44 receiving yards.  He has now ran for 496 yards on the season, but is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.  Tennessee is 18-22 ATS over the last two-plus seasons and the ‘over’ is 22-18 in those contests.

The Titans lead the all-time series with the Falcons, 7-5, including wins in the last five meetings.  Tennessee registered a 20-13 win as nine-point home favorites in the last series contest on Oct. 7, 2007.  Veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has faced many NFC opponents due to his time with the Seattle Seahawks, tallying a 3-2 career record versus the Falcons, throwing for six touchdowns and three interceptions.  The defensive unit should come in with plenty of confidence, registering five sacks and forcing two turnovers, while holding the league’s No. 5 offense to just 279 yards.

Atlanta suffered a heartbreaking 26-23 overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints as one-point home favorites, finishing the game with a 118-yard advantage.  The Falcons were unable to convert a fourth down try from their 29-yard line that eventually led to the Saints game-winning field goal from just 26 yards out.  “I know the decision will be scrutinized all week long,” commented Falcons head coach Mike Smith.  Atlanta has now won six of its past seven games in November, posting a 7-4 ATS mark in that situation the last two-plus years.

The Falcons offense definitely land in an advantageous spot, with quarterback Matt Ryan winning four consecutive games versus AFC opponents, throwing for 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions in those games.  Atlanta will also want to get the ball to running back Michael Turner, facing a defensive unit that’s allowing 125.2 yards per game, which is 22nd in the league in that category.

Bettors will likely back the Falcons due to their 8-2 ATS mark as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while the Titans are 0-5 ATS following a spread win.

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