Free NFL Picks: Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 10/2/11, 1:00 PM EST, TV:  CBS
Opening Point Spread:  Green Bay -13
Current Betting Line:  Green Bay -12
Opening Total:  48
Current Total:  46
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

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The Green Bay Packers are No. 3 in scoring offense this season

Denver has been involved in three games this season decided by three points or less, but has come away with just one victory.  The Broncos dropped a 17-14 contest to the Tennessee Titans last week as seven-point road underdogs, being out-gained by 102 yards.  Offensively, the team will definitely be looking to take to the air, facing a Packers secondary that is allowing more than 359 passing yards per game.  It will also likely be the game plan due to the team averaging just 72.3 yards per game rushing.  Denver is 5-15 ATS versus NFC North division opponents and 16-19 ATS overall the last two-plus seasons.

The Broncos will rely on quarterback Kyle Orton to try and spring the upset, as he’s 3-1 in his career against the Packers, as those contests were played while he was with the Chicago Bears.  He completed 49.4 percent of his passes for 447 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions in those contests.  Denver is hoping to have starting running back Knowshon Moreno back this week, as Willis McGahee replaced him in last week’s loss.

Green Bay is coming off back-to-back road wins at Carolina and Chicago, entering this contest with a perfect 3-0 record.  The Packers have won six straight contests at Lambeau Field and 12 of their last 13 overall in front of the home fans.  In fact, Green Bay is 27-8 in its last 35 regular-season games in Titletown, a record that ranks No. 3 in the NFL and No. 1 in the NFC over that span.  The team picked up a 42-34 win in the league’s season-opening contest against the New Orleans Saints, covering as 4.5-point favorites.  Green Bay is 10-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record and 26-13 ATS over the last two-plus seasons.

The Packers may be struggling against the pass this year, but the defense is No. 1 in the league versus the run.  Green Bay has allowed just 165 rushing yards in the first three weeks, which is the fourth-lowest in franchise history over that span.  On the other side of the ball, quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks No. 1 in the NFL with a 120.9 passer rating, connecting on 74-of-103 passes for 917 yards and eight touchdowns with just a single interception.  Green Bay checks in as the No. 3 scoring offense in the NFL, scoring 99 points through the first three weeks.

Bettors will likely back the Packers due to their 6-1 ATS mark at home, while the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in October.

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