Free NBA Picks ATS: Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs

Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
December 20th, 2010 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  San Antonio -12
Current Line:   San Antonio -11
Opening Total: 213
Current Total:  213
Opening Moneyline:  San Antonio -1000 / Phoenix +700
Current Moneyline:  San Antonio -850 / Phoenix +625

Nash is going to have to have another herculean game for the Suns to have any chance

Phoenix won last shorthanded and now face the hottest team in the league, San Antonio.  The Spurs have won 8 straight games and are 14-2 at home, 23-3 overall.  Despite playing last game shorthanded, it appears that they will have to again, as their incoming players have yet to have their physicals.  Winning without 3 key players (Vince Carter, Gortat, and Pietrus) will prove to be a difficult task for the Suns who NBA oddsmakers picked to be 12 point underdogs in tonight’s matchup.

Some betting trends:  Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in their past 6 games and 3-5-1 ATS on the road in their past 9 road games.  The total has gone OVER in 7 of Phoenix’s last 8 against San Antonio.  Phoenix has won 5 of their last 6 against San Antonio, but just 7 of the last 24 IN San Antonio.

The total has gone UNDER In 6 of San Antonio’s last 9 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio’s last 7 games at home.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against Phoenix.

Some key matchups for tonight

Steve Nash vs. Tony Parker

This game brings together two of the very best point guards in the league.  Nash, the high volume distributionist of the Suns, is always exciting and Parker is lightning quick and a great passer as well.  George Hill will see a lot of minutes at point guard for San Antonio, but it is still Parker’s team.  In addition to Hill, Manu Ginobili creates a lot of shots, as well, and is having an excellent year.  Last game against San Antonio, Nash had 19 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds, but shot just 8 of 22 from the floor.  With Phoenix being so short handed, they are going to have to rely more on Nash to score than usual and he will have to shoot better than that to keep Phoenix in the game at all.   Parker had 11 points and 6 assists taht game, but also had a poor shooting night, going 4 of 11.

Grant Hill vs. Richard Jefferson

Because of the depleted roster, Hill had to score 30 last game for Phoenix to win.  He’ll have trouble doing a repeat performance of that tonight against Jefferson, an above average defender.  Jefferson is having a better year this year than last, shooting 50% from the floor this year (46.7% last year) and scoring 14.0 points per game (12.3 last year).  He is also shooting 46.2% from behind the arc, at 4.1 attempts per game.  Grant Hill has the speed to stay up on Jefferson and force him off the three point line so don’t be surprised to see Jefferson trying to go to the basket as Hill just won’t give him the room to shoot uncontested jumpers.

Truly, Phoenix is going to have a tough time tonight without their new additions in the lineup.  It leaves them badly shorthanded and San Antonio has simply been too good to allow the Suns to have a good shot at winning this one, nevermind covering the spread.

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