Denver Nuggets AT Phoenix Suns
Mar 10, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Phoenix -4
Current Line: Phoenix -3.5
Opening Total: 216.5
Current Total: 216
Opening Moneyline: Pho -160 / Den +140
Current Moneyline: Pho -155 / Den +135
Phoenix has found a way to get things together since the last time they played Denver, when they suffered their worst defeat in five years. Since that time, the Suns have went 18-8 and have moved up to 9th in the Western Conference, only one game behind 8th seeded Memphis. A win tonight from Phoenix will only further that purpose and bring them closer to the playoffs.
They will have to find a way to do it without Channing Frye, however, who dislocated his shoulder and is out 2 to 3 weeks. The result has been Hakim Warrick seeing more playing time. “I know, collectively, everyone is going to have step up their game,” Warrick said. “He’s (Frye) a big part of this team, this organization and he’s been playing so well for us, so I just wanted to go out there and be aggressive and just do my part.”
Vince Carter also has helped fill the void averaging 30.5 points per game over the last two games while shooting 11 of 19 from behind the arc. It will take a collective effort for the Suns to win without Frye, but they do have the depth to overcome it.
Some betting trends:
Denver is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games. The total has gone OVER in 9 of their last 13 on the road and they aer 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Suns and Denver is 8-17 SU in their last 25 games against Phoenix. Denver is 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games against the Suns and they are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against the Suns.
Phoenix is 6-2 SU over their last 8 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix’ last 6 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 at home and Phoenix is 10-4 SU In their last 14 at home. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and they are 17-8 SU in their last 25 against Denver. Phoenix is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Denver. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 5 games against the Nuggets at home. Phoenix is 5-0 SU In their last 5 home games against the Denver Nuggets.
Key Matchups:
Ty Lawson & Raymond Felton vs. Steve Nash
Nash obviously has the upper hand here, but don’t underestimate Felton and Lawson, who are both good young stars and figure to be a part of Denver’s future (Well, at least one of them – likely Lawson). Over his last 3 games, Lawson is averaging 16 points per game and 7.6 assists per game. Felton has went for 11 points per game and 6 assists per game over that same span. They are seeing time both apart from one another and with one another on the court and their speed and outside shooting ability make them a dynamic duo. Nash is at a handicap in terms of speed. Lawson’s quickness will enable him to beat Nash off the dribble, but obviously Nash can do the same on the other end of the court, speed not withstanding.
Aaron Affalo vs. Vince Carter
Carter has been cookin’ lately, but Afflalo is just the person to put an end to that. While Denver is a very poor defensive team, Affalo remains a solid defender and has frequently controlled the better shooting guards in the game. Affalo’s defense may push Carter to take some bad shots, which is the best you can hope for against Carter. He’ll take poor fade aways and ill advised threes, and doesn’t look to get to the basket as much as he did in his younger days. All those things combined make him an easy cover for Afflalo. Affalo isn’t a total pushover on offense either, as he averages 12.9 points per game on 50.1% shooting from the floor.
Tonight’s game promises to be a high scoring affair, as indicated by NBA oddsmakers setting the total at 216.5. Phoenix has owned Denver at home, though, and the Nuggets are still settling in and waiting for the post trade dust to settle.
