Desert Baseball: Colorado Rockies At Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

Colorado Rockies (18-10) AT Arizona Diamondbacks (13-16)
May 5, 2011 at 9:40 EST
Opening Moneyline:  Even. (-110)
Current Moneyline:  ARI -115, COL +105
Opening Total: 9
Current Total:  9

Ian Kennedy will take the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight

The first two games of this series were split.  The Dimondbacks won the opener 4-3 while the Rockies rebounded to win the second game 6-4.  The Rockies received a significant offensive outburst, aided by Todd Helton’s 2 run double and Chris Iannetta’s 2 run homer, while Carlos Gonzalez also contributed two hits.  It snapped a two game losing streak for the Rockies.

While the Rockies sit atop the NL West, they have only won 2 of their last 5 games and they combined for only 11 runs in the last four games of that span.  The Rockies haven’t won a series against the Dimondbacks since September of 2009 and the Rockies are 3-8 on the road against the Diamondbacks since the beginning of the 2010 season.

Carlos Gonzalez has finally managed to get things together for the Rockies.  After going 0 for 22, Gonzalez rallied to hit 8 of his last 17 and pull his batting average up to .257 on the year.

“He is really beginning to resemble himself,” Rockies manager Jim Tracy said.  “I wanted to see him get going, then turn the tables and put him right back where he belongs.”

The Rockies will send Jason Hammel to the mound.  Hammel has posted a 3-1 record so far with a solid 3.23 ERA.  A victory today would be his third consecutive.  “It’s nice,” Hammel said. “You’re going to go through your ups and downs during the season. I’m not going to expect it to be there every time.”  Hammel’s ERA against the Rockies is less impressive.  In four starts he has compiled a 5.48 ERA, but due to outstanding run production he is still 2-1 over those four starts.  Hammel’s PECOTA projection predicts an 8-10 record with a 5.15 ERA.

The Diamondbacks’ Kelly Johnson is 4 of 7 against Jason Hammel and he hit one of the three homers for the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

The Diamondbacks will send Ian Kennedy to the mound.  His ERA is a respectable 3.92 and he’s compiled a 3-1 record.  A win for Kennedy would also be his third consecutive.  He has been very good if you exclude the 9 earned runs in 3 innings in a loss to the Cardinals.  Since that time he has only allowed 4 runs in 22 innings.  In another quality start, he gave up three runs in 7 2/3rds innings work in a loss to Chicago.  Against the Rockies, Kennedy has a 3.66 ERA and an 0-1 record.  In an opening day win against the Rockies, Kennedy allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings.
Kennedy’s PECOTA projection predicts an 8-6 record with a 3.96 ERA.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado’s last 6 games and it has gone OVER  in 15 of their last 22 games.  Colorado is 10-3 SU in their last 13 road games and the total has gone OVER In 9 of the Rockies’ last 13 games on the road.  The total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 15 against the Diamondbacks and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 against the Diamondbacks.  Colorado is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Arizona while the total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 10 games on the road against the Diamondbacks.  Colorado is 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games against the Diamondbacks.

The total has gone UNDER In 4 of the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games and it has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games at home.  Arizona is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against the Rockies and the total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Diamondbacks’ last 15 games against the Rockies.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games against Colorado and it has gone UNDER in 7 of the last 10 at home against the Rockies.  Arizona is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home against the Rockies.

Given the even opening odds and the fact that two respectable pitchers are taking the mound makes the call on this one difficult.  Kennedy has been pitching extremely well recently though, and if he can avoid a meltdown like he did in his first outing, he should go on to win the game.  However, he may come back to reality as well and throw an average game.

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