December 28, 2011 Bovada NBA Player Prop Bets

DeRozan struggled badly against the Pacers last season
Last night, I hit 3 out of 5 to begin the year. It’s a decent start for what I expect to be a great year. Let’s take a look at the lines provided by tonight! I’ve taken 9 different prop bets from tonight’s action.

DeMar DeRozan total pts 16 vs Indiana

UNDER. DeRozan averaged only 11 ppg in 3 games against the Indiana Pacers, and the Pacers have two very tough wing defenders in Paul George and Danny Granger. Expect George to see most of the time against DeRozan and expect a very good job by the second year swingman defensively.

Chris Bosh total pts 16 vs Charlotte

OVER. Bosh averaged 18.5 points per game in four games against the Bobcats last season. What has always troubled me about Bosh though is his inconsistency. 22, 11, 14, 27 were his four point totals, and as you can see he only crossed 16 in half of those games despite having an average that would dictate he did every time. Still, I’m buying Bosh to go over just because of his season average against the Cats last year.

Gerald Henderson total pts 12 vs Miami

OVER. In the final 15 games of the season last year, Henderson posted 12 or better in 13 of the games. That fact combined with a good start (18 pts opening night) bode well for the former Blue Devil.

Al Horford total pts + rebs 22.5 vs Cleveland

OVER. 21 pts, 10 rebs and 15 pts, 13 rebs are the two games that Horford put up against the Wizards last season, both of which easily exceed the 22.5 line. I don’t think the oddsmakers are confusing Horford’s 23 minute game last night with what he will see on a regular basis, and the fact that this is the second night of a back to back shouldn’t affect Horford much since he did in fact only see 23 minutes last night.

Rajon Rondo total pts 16.5 vs New Orleans

OVER. The Celtics are still likely going to be without Paul Pierce and Rondo put up 31 opening night and 22 last night against the Heat. Hes playing nearly 43 minutes a game and has attempted an average of 17 shots in the two games. Until Rondo gives me a reason not to, I have to bite on ‘overs’ like this one, notwithstanding the fact that Rondo played 44 minutes last night. Sure, he’ll see a few less tonight, but he is a machine.

Russell Westbrook total assists 7.5 vs Memphis

UNDER. Westbrook went under 7 assists in 5 of the 7 games against Memphis in the playoffs. The two he didn’t he put up huge assists numbers, but I’m buying the law of averages on this one and suspecting Westbrook gets greedy with the rock again, as well. Moreover, this season he has 6 assists in each of the first two games…

Chauncey Billups total pts 15.5 vs. San Antonio

OVER. Billups came out chuckin’ opening night and put up 19 shots. He clearly is going to have no trouble adjusting to his role as a shooting guard and looks to be aggressive enough to put up some big numbers this year. While he did connect on only 6 of his 19 shots opening night, he still put up 21 pts, so a repeat performance would be just as well for us.

Tim Duncan total pts +rebs 22.5 vs. Los Angeles Clippers

UNDER. Duncan saw only 21 minutes opening night, and while this isn’t a back to back for him, the season is going to be brutal and I expect Duncan to see under 30 on a regular basis. I realize 22.5 isn’t setting the bar very high for a player of Duncan’s caliber, but he also only came up with 10 & 6 on opening night.

Ty Lawson total pts + assists 23 vs. Utah

OVER, The only thing that kept Lawson from putting up 40 opening night was minutes. He started out the game by hitting 8 of his first 9 shots. I expect Lawson to have a huge year this season and am not basing this ‘over’ solely on performance stats, but rather my observations of Lawson’s game that lead me to believe he is on the verge of a breakout season.

If you like this analysis and feel inclined to back up a wager, the odds are taken from

Also consider our paid pick plans for the 2011-2012 year as we murder the books in the NBA again!

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