Last season, we absolutely crushed the books in NBA prop betting, and it is provided to you free of charge here in Maddux Sports’ blog. I’ve keyed in on five lines for tonight’s games that I feel offer a lot of value over on Bovada.lv
Kris Humphries Total Pts/Rebs 22
OVER. Humphries already beasted rebounds to the tune of 13.5 boards per-36 last season, and that was with Brook Lopez (who admitted to being lazy on the boards) in the lineup. With Mehmet Okur now aging and starting in Lopez’ place, that puts more emphasis on Humphries to both rebound and score. He responded in the Nets first game last night, posting 21 points on 9 of 14 shooting and grabbing 16 boards. While that is clearly setting the bar pretty high for himself, it is 37 total and I think he passes tonight’s total rather easily.
Rajon Rondo over/under 15 total points
OVER. Rondo scored over 30 in the Celtics opener, and even if Pierce is back tonight, he is still going to have to carry a huge load for Boston. Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are going to prove to be in over their heads against a guy like Rondo, who I think is in for a big season. Rondo appears to have at least moderately addressed his poor jumpshot, which should make him near impossible to stop if he has indeed done so.
Kevin Love over/under 13.5 rebounds
OVER. Last season against the Bucks, Love had 33 rebounds in the two games combined, good for a 16.5 rebound average against the Bucks. That’s really all I am saying on this one.
Andrew Bogut over/under Total Pts+Rebs 25
UNDER. Last season in the two games against the Timberwolves, Bogut scored a total of 15 points and grabbed 16 rebounds, good for a 7.5 ppg and 8.0 rpg averages. Again, that should make it pretty clear why I am giong with the ‘under’ on this one. Bogut has had problems with Darko Mililic’s size and Love’s boxing out abilities, and has not had success against the Timberwolves.
Marcus Thornton over/under 16.5 Pts
OVER. Thornton put up 27 last night. Over the last two months of the season, Thornton posted 21.5 points per game, scoring over 20 in 16 of the last 24 games. 16 points shouldn’t be much of a challenge for Thornton, even if Wes Matthews is a good defender. Neither time that Thornton faced the Blazers last year did he receive over 11 minutes a game, so we have no precidence for the kind of defense Matthews either can or can’t play on Thornton.