Houston Rockets AT New Orleans Hornets
Opening Line: NO -2.5
Current Line: NO -2.5
Opening Total: 198
Current Total: 201
Opening Moneyline: NO -165 / Hou +145
Current Moneyline: No -140 / Hou +120
If Houston were in the Eastern conference, they might be battling for a playoff spot, possibly even as high as the sixth seed. Unfortunately for them, they play in the rugged Western Conference, where having a +.500 record doesn’t guarantee anything. In fact, a loss tonight would put the Rockets on the brink of elimination. If the Rockets lose tonight, they would have to win their last 3 and have Memphis lose their last 4 to make the playoffs, illustrating their plight.
Conversely, a win for the Hornets would clinch a playoff berth for them, which is important given the strength of their upcoming schedule.
The Hornets had begun to more or less resign their season as a lost cause following the loss of David West, but former Rocket forward Carl Landry has stepped up very admirably, averaging 20.2 points per game and 6.4 boards in the last 5 games.
“Sometimes you’re stuck in the old team’s habits, and we’re just trying to do our best to keep (Landry) abreast of what we’re doing and bringing him along,” Emeka Okafor said, who is averaging a double double himself over the last 5 games.
Some betting trends:
Houston is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 on the road. They are 8-4 SU in their last 12 on the road and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the New Orleans Hornets. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of their last 12 against New Orleans. Houston is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against the Hornets and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against New Orleans on the road. The Rockets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against New Orleans on the road and the total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the last 5 games on the road in New Orleans.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’ last 6 games and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games. New Orleans is 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9 games and 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans’ last 12 games against the Houston Rockets. New Orleans is 5-1 SU in their last 6 against Houston and the total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the last 5 games against the Rockets while New Orleans is 4-2 SU in their last 6 at home against the Rockets.
Key Matchups:
Kyle Lowry vs. Chris Paul
Chris Paul stats have decreased each of the last three seasons, now to the point that he is averaging 6.6 points less per game than he did in 08-09. His shot attempts per game have went from 16.1 in 08-09 to 14.2 in 09-10 to a meager 11.6 per game this season. Lowry’s trend has been quite the opposite. Lowry’s 13.6 points per game this season is 3.8 above his career average and his 6.7 assists per game is 2.2 above his career average. His 4.2 rebounds per game also represent a career high; it is undoubtable that Lowry is having his best season ever. He made Aaron Brooks expendable, and the Rockets dealt Brooks to Phoenix at the trade deadline. Lowry is playing 34 minutes a game this year and other than having a perennially low field goal percentage (42.9% this season, 42.4% for his career), it is difficult to find any faults with what Lowry has done for the Rockets. Both Paul and Lowry are lightning quick, but only the Rockets play a fast paced game. The Hornets will look to control the tempo at home and keep the scores in the low 90s. The total set for tonight is precarious given the opposite styles of play of these two teams.
Luis Scola vs. Carl Landry
Ordinarily this would be a premier matchup between Scola and David West, but Landry should do little to diminish the importance of this matchup. Landry has been very relevant and looks poised to save the Hornets’ season following the injury to West. Scola had the highest scoring season of his career, but he started off the season red hot, scoring 36 in the secondg game of the season (against Golden State) and then putting in 28 the next night against Denver. Given his play in the FIBA World Championships and his quick start, it appeared Scola might be on his way to an all-star season. His stats instead regressed to the norm and he became just another solid power forward, which is really what Scola is. If the Rockets weren’t so fast paced, or if he were on another team, he would average much closer to 15 a game.
Tonight’s game is of great importance for both teams. Expect New Orleans to have a “playoff atmosphere” as the Rockets’ post season hopes hinge in the balance, along with New Orleans’ opportunity to clinch their berth tonight.
