Comparing NBA Players Predictions For Rookie of the Year Versus the Betting Odds

If this guy ever gets out of his suit and laces them up, Blake Griffin offers some good value on the NBA rookie of the year odds
NBA Players’ Predictions on Rookie of the Year Voting.  So how do the opinions of NBA players stack up with sportsbook rookie of the year odds?

The players recently voted on who is most likely to be rookie of the year, and it seems the players agree with Bodog online sportsbook – for the most part.  38.5% of the players polled chose John Wall to be the most likely rookie of the year, which jives with Bodog’s 5/4 odds on Wall.  Making a bet on Wall, while seemingly a sure thing, is not the most profitable move.  With just over one third of the players selecting Wall, that means that an overwhelming 61.5% did NOT choose Wall, which does not speak well for the 5/4 odds.

Other options include Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, and Wesley Johnson.  Blake Griffin garnered 23.1% of the votes, and has 11/4 odds.  Not bad considering the odds compared to Wall.  Blake Griffin pays out almost 3:1 and he was the #1 pick a year ago, before going out with a fractured patella.  If he has healed fine from this injury, he may be a good bet to make given the odds.  The Clippers are going to be notoriously bad again this year, which will give Griffin plenty of opportunity for playing time – and for stats.  If he could put up anything along the lines of 18 ppg and 9 rpg, he would certainly push Wall for the majority stake of the votes.  Given Blake’s dominance at Oklahoma, and his raging athleticism, I would strongly advocate making a bet on him.  Assuming he has healed properly from his injury, his play should be enough to take him to the top.

But what of DeMarcus Cousins and Wesley Johnson?  Cousins got 12.8% of the player votes and Wesley Johnson got 7.7%.  Not overwhelming percentages of the vote.  That said, do they have a chance to win it?  I think they might.  Cousins will be the dominant big man (offensively) in Sacramento this season and has all the tools to be a successful big man in the NBA.  His odds on Bodog are 7/1.  A pretty nice payout.  That said, I don’t think he has what it takes to beat Wall or Griffin.  He has the potential, but needs to get in better shape (He weighed in at 17% body fat at the predraft rookie measurements) before he is going to take the steps necessary to be outright dominant.  Quicker big men in the league, such as Howard and Bosh, will have little trouble covering Cousins, because they can move their feet and keep him from the basket.  While he won’t be facing the likes of Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh every night, he still needs to improve his conditioning before he can reach the level that Blake Griffin is already on.

Wesley Johnson, with 7.7% of the player votes, Is a bit of a long shot to say the least.  And accordingly, his odds are 9/1.  Minnesota, for sure, will be horrible once again this season, and while that means there will be plenty of opportunity for Johnson to score, it doesn’t bode well for him since the media voters tend to overlook performances by players on poor teams sometimes.  I don’t think I would feel comfortable dropping any kind of bet on Johnson, unless he were 15/1 odds or greater – and he is not.  Steer clear.

Are there any other options outside this big four?  Yes!  I’m not certainly if it were his bad summer performance or what, but it seems the NBA players completely over looked Evan Turner?  He has 6/1 odds and a very legitimate chance at winning it, in my opinion.  He had an absolutely dreadful summer league showing, but that doesn’t mean much.  Nikoloz Tskitvili didn’t win ROY after absolutely owning summer league, and few probably even remember his name.  Indeed, summer league means close to nothing, in terms of gauging how a player will perform.  Evan Turner will more than likely start for the Sixers and playing alongside Jrue Holiday could pay great dividends.  I think if he and Jrue can form a strong backcourt and lead the Sixers to 38-43 wins, then Turner could emerge as the dark horse candidate for ROY.

In conclusion, all things being equal, I see the best bets actually being on Blake Griffin and Evan Turner.  Turner didn’t get the player votes, while Griffin did, so maybe the players know something we don’t – with regard to how skillsets translate in the NBA.  Given that notion, I think the best bet for rookie of the year is Blake Griffin.  Wall may win, but at 5/4 odds, the payout would hardly be worth it.  Griffin meanwhile will bring back a good bang for the buck and has every bit as good a chance to win the award.

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