College Hoops Picks: Oklahoma Sooners at #16 Kansas State Wildcats

Oklahoma Sooners at #16 Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, January 19, 2013, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big 12 Network, Altitude, YES, MASN

Fred Bramlage Coliseum – Manhattan, Kansas
Opening Line: Kansas St -5 1/2
Current Line: 
Kansas St -6
Opening Total:
Current Total:
Opening Money Line: Kansas St -250 / Oklahoma +210
Current Money Line: Kansas St -250 / Oklahoma +210

Kansas St is a 6 point favorite at home against Oklahoma Saturday. Both teams are 3-0 in Big 12 play.
Kansas St is a 6 point favorite at home against Oklahoma Saturday. Both teams are 3-0 in Big 12 play.

The #16 14-2 Kansas St Wildcats host the 12-3 Oklahoma Sooners Saturday. Both teams are 3-0 early in the Big 12 season and tied with Kansas for the conference lead. Oklahoma leads the series 104-91 against Kansas St, but the Wildcats are 55-36 in Manhattan. Oklahoma has won 11 of the last 15 against Kansas St, including both meetings last year. Before that though Kansas St had won 4 of the last 5 in the series.

Oklahoma is coached by Lon Kruger. Kruger graduated from Kansas St, and was player for the Wildcats in the early 70’s. The Sooners have losses to Gonzaga in a tournament in Orlando, at Arkansas and at home to Stephen F. Austin. Oklahoma has wins over UTEP and West Virginia in Orlando, at Oral Roberts, Texas A&M in Oklahoma City, and at home against Ohio. The Sooners have conference wins at West Virginia, and at home against Oklahoma St and Texas Tech Wednesday 81-63. The game in Orlando against West Virginia didn’t count as a conference game because they had both been invited to the tournament before WVU joined the Big 12 this season from the Big East. The Sooners have won 5 straight games. Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS and the total is 5-4 this season.

Oklahoma is outscoring teams 69-62 this season. The Sooners are shooting 42.4% from the field and 32.5% from 3 point range. Oklahoma makes 75.8% of their free throws, and are #17 in the country.. The Sooners average 37.8 rebounds and give up 30.7. OU opponents are shooting 40.2% from the field and 29.2% from 3 point range. The Sooners average 12 assists, 7 steals, 3 blocks, and 12 turnovers.

Forward Romero Osby averages 13.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1 assist and 0.8 blocks per game to lead the team. Guard Stephen Pledger averages 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 steals. Forward Amath M’Baye averages 9.8 points and 5.7 rebounds. Guard Buddy Hield averages 9.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals. Cameron Clark averages 6.6 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Je’Lon Hornbeak, Andrew Fitzgerald, Isaiah Cousins and Sam Grooms make up the rest of the rotation. Oklahoma has only 3 players 6′-8″ and over on the roster.

Kansas St is coached by Bruce Weber. The only losses came to Michigan in the pre-season NIT at Madison Square Garden, and to Gonzaga in Seattle. Both Michigan and Gonzaga are currently ranked in the top 10. The Wildcats have won 7 straight games. K-State has key wins over Delaware in New York City, at George Washington, Florida, Oklahoma St, and at West Virginia and TCU 67-54 Wednesday night. The Wildcats are 5-6-1 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season.

Kansas St is outscoring teams 69-57 this season. The Wildcats are #19 in points allowed. K-State is shooting 43.1% from the field and 34.2% from 3 point range. The Wildcats make 64.6% of their free throws. Kansas St is #27 in rebounding with 39.6 per game, and they give up 29.1 per game. K-State opponents are shooting 39.2% from the field and 27.4% from 3 point range. The Wildcats are #9 in three point defense nationally. Kansas St averages 16 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 13 turnovers per game.

Guard Rodney McGruder averages 15.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Guard Angel Rodriguez averages 9.0 points, 4.3 assists, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game. Guard Will Spradling averages 8.3 points, 3.3 assists, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game. Forward Thomas Gipson averages 7.3 points and 6 rebounds per game. Guard Shane Southwell averages¬† 7.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. Forward Nino Williams averages 6.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. Forward Jordan Henriquez averages 5.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. Martavious Irving, Adrian Diaz, D.J. Johnson, and Omari Lawrence will also see significant time in the rotation. The Wildcats are deep but don’t have a lot of size. Diaz and Henriquez are the only players over 6′-8″ on the roster.

Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS overall, 5-0 against teams with winning records, 4-0  in Saturday games, after a straight up win, and in the Big 12, and 4-1 in road games against teams with winning home records. The over is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 in this series.

Kansas St is 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 4-1-1 in Big 12 games, 12-4-1 against teams with winning road records, and 1-3-1 after a cover. The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 against the Sooners, including 5-2 in Manhattan.

Neither of these teams have a lot of size, but they are also very quick. Both teams like to play in the high 60’s. Kansas St is a better defensive team, but Oklahoma isn’t awful on defense either. The Sooners are gritty and can certainly pull off the road upset. However, I think Kansas St survives a close game.

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