College Hoops Betting: Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Kansas State Wildcats

Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Kansas State Wildcats
Monday, February 25, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Fred Bramlage Coliseum – Manhattan, Kansas
Opening Line: Kansas State -19 1/2
Current Line: Kansas State -18 1/2

Opening Total: 137
Current Total: 137
Opening Money Line: Kansas St -4000 / Texas Tech +1768
Current Money Line: 
Kansas St -3500 / Texas Tech +1657

Kansas St is a huge favorite at home against Texas Tech Monday night.
Kansas St is a huge favorite at home against Texas Tech Monday night.

In Saturday’s Big 12 action, the conference’s five best teams (Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, and Oklahoma) beat up on the worst five teams (Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, Texas Tech, and TCU) by double digits. The closest game was Kansas State’s 12 point win at Texas 81-69. The 22-5 Wildcats improved to 11-3 in the Big 12 and are tied with Kansas for the conference lead with 4 games remaining in the regular season.

Next up the #13 Wildcats host 9-16 Texas Tech who is 2-12 in conference, ahead of only 1-13 TCU in the standings. The Red Raiders lost 86-66 at Iowa St Saturday. It was the eighth loss in a row for Tech. Kansas State leads the series 19-10 against Texas Tech, including 11-2 in Manhattan. The Wildcats have beaten the Red Raiders 6 straight times including 68-59 February 5 in Lubbock. In that game, Texas Tech was down 8 at halftime. They pulled to within 3 points early in the second half, but would get no closer. The Wildcats would lead by as many as 13 points.

Texas Tech is led interim coach Chris Walker. Walker became the head coach when Billy Gillespie had to step down for health reasons just before the season started. The Red Raiders have home losses to Arizona, McNeese St, Alabama, Arizona St, Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas St, Oklahoma St and Oklahoma,  along with road losses at Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa St. Texas Tech has key wins at TCU and at home against Iowa St. The other Tech wins are all over inferior teams. Texas Tech is 7-11 ATS and the total is 6-9 this season.

Texas Tech is being outscored 72-66 this season. The Red Raiders are #306 out of 347 teams in points allowed.  The Red Raiders are shooting 41.8% from the field and 28.3% from 3 point range. Tech is #336 in three point shooting. The Red Raiders make 67.1% of their free throws. Texas Tech averages 33.4 rebounds per game, and give up 31.9 rebounds per game. Red Raider opponents are shooting 46.2% from the field and 38.1% from 3 point range. Tech is #317 or worse in both categories. Texas Tech averages 11 assists, 8 steals, 3 blocks, and 15 turnovers.

Forward Jaye Crockett averages 12.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game.Guard Josh Gray averages 10.0 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.1 steals.  Forward Jordan Tolbert averages 9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1 block per game. Forward Dejan Kravic averages 8.7 points, 5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1 assist per game.  Dusty Hannahs averages 6.6 points per game. Daylen Robinson, Jamal Williams, Jr., Todrick Gotcher and Ty Nurse also get significant minutes in the rotation. Forward Aaron Ross is out for the season with a knee injury. Trency Jackson is out for the season due to being ineligible. He averaged 6.6 points a game.

Kansas St is coached by Bruce Weber. The only losses came to Michigan in the pre-season NIT at Madison Square Garden, and to Gonzaga in Seattle, Kansas twice, and at Iowa St. Michigan, Kansas  and Gonzaga are currently ranked in the top 9 in the country. K-State has key wins over Delaware in New York City, at George Washington, Florida in Kansas City, Oklahoma St, Texas and Oklahoma twice and at West Virginia twice, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas. The Wildcats are 11-11-1 ATS and the total is 11-7 this season.

Kansas St is outscoring teams 70-60 this season. The Wildcats are #32 in points allowed. K-State is shooting 43.7% from the field and 36.8% from 3 point range. The Wildcats make 69% of their free throws. Kansas St averages  35.7 rebounds per game, and they give up 29.1 per game. K-State opponents are shooting 41.5% from the field and 30.6% from 3 point range. Kansas St averages 16 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 12 turnovers per game.

Guard Rodney McGruder averages 15 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Guard Angel Rodriguez averages 10.9 points, 5.1 assists, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game. Guard Will Spradling averages 8.7 points, 2.7 assists, 2.6 rebounds, and 1 steal per game. He is probable with a chest injury. Guard Shane Southwell averages  8.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Forward Thomas Gipson averages 7.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game.  Forward Nino Williams averages 4.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Forward Jordan Henriquez averages 4.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Martavious Irving, Adrian Diaz, D.J. Johnson, and Omari Lawrence will also see significant time in the rotation. The Wildcats are deep but don’t have a lot of size. Diaz and Henriquez are the only players over 6′-8″ on the roster.

Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS after a straight up loss, overall, and against Big 12 teams, 1-5 in Monday games, 2-10 in road games, and against teams with winning home records, and 0-4 against teams with winning records. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 in this series.

Kansas State is 5-2 ATS at home, 7-3 against teams with losing records, 1-4 after a cover, and 1-5 in Monday games. The home team is 13-4 ATS recently in this series, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against the Red Raiders, and 4-0 in Manhattan.

There is no question Kansas State will win this game easily. Texas Tech is terrible and is dealing with some injuries as well. With a probable lame duck coach, I think the red raiders are just playing out the string. Kansas St could probably win by 30 points if they wanted. Of course, with such a huge number the possibility of a back door cover always exists. Still I think the Wildcats roll.

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