College Football Week Nine Betting Picks: Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes

Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes
Folsom Field – Boulder, Colorado

Saturday, October 26, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Arizona -17
Current Line: Arizona -12
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 56 1/2
Opening Money Line: Arizona -560 / Colorado +430
Current Money Line: Arizona -460 / Colorado +360

Arizona is a 12 point favorite at Colorado Saturday in a Pac 12 battle.
Arizona is a 12 point favorite at Colorado Saturday in a Pac 12 battle.

The 4-2 Arizona Wildcats are 1-2 in the Pac 12 South as they travel to the 3-3 Colorado Buffaloes who are 0-3 in the Pac 12 Saturday. Colorado leads the series 13-2 but the Wildcats won last year’s meeting in Tucson 56-31.

Arizona is coached by Rich Rodriguez. Arizona opened the season with 3 straight wins over Northern Arizona 35-0 and UTSA 38-13, both in Tucson, and a road win at UNLV 58-13. The Wildcats beat Utah last week 35-24 in Tucson. The Wildcats have road losses at Washington 31-13 and at USC 38-31. Arizona is 3-3 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season. The Wildcats were a 3.5 point favorite against Utah and the total was 62.

Arizona took a 20-7 lead at halftime against Utah, including a 14 yard pick six. The Utes blocked an extra point late in the second quarter. Utah scored 14 third quarter points to take a 21-20 lead going into the fourth. Arizona regained the lead early in the fourth and successfully made a two point conversion. The Utes kicked a field goal with 7:11 left to pull within 28-24. Arizona fumbled on their next possession and Utah recovered at the Wildcat 39. The Utes missed a 40 yard field goal. The Wildcats drove down the field and scored a touchdown to ice the game 35-24. Arizona had 468 total yards including 300 rushing yards. Utah had 329 total yards including 172 rushing yards. Each team had 2 turnovers.

Arizona is outscoring teams 35-20 this season. The Wildcats are #37 nationally in scoring and #20 in points allowed. Arizona is averaging 431.2 yards per game including the nation’s 13th best rushing attack at 268.5 yards per game. The passing game is #113 out of 125 teams at 162.7 yards per game. On defense, the Wildcats are allowing 369.2 yards per game including 199.5 passing and 169.7 yards per game. Arizona is #42 in total defense and #21 in pass defense. The Wildcats are +5 in turnovers with 11 takeaways. Arizona is 56/116 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 42/111. Arizona averages 37 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 63. The Wildcats have forced 9 sacks and allowed 9. Arizona is 18/22 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns, and opponents are 11/12 with 10 touchdowns. The Wildcats have 4 pick sixes this season.

Arizona quarterback B.J. Denker has completed 55.5% of his passes for 976 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 picks. Denker also has 75 carries, 327 yards and 8 touchdowns. Running back Ka’Deem Carey has 134 carries, 805 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 119 yards. Daniel Jenkins has 44 carries, 277 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 32 yards and a touchdown. Jared Baker, Javelle Allen and Kylan Butler will also get some carries. Allen and Butler each have a rushing touchdown.

Nate Phillips has 13 catches for 199 yards and two touchdowns. Garic Wharton has 10 catches for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns. Samajie Grant has 18 catches, for 136 yards and a touchdown. Terrence Miller and Johnny Jackson will  also get some catches.  Two Wildcat receiver DaVonte Neal and Austin Hill are all listed as questionable or out, and so are five Arizona defensive players including 2 linebackers.

Colorado is coached by Mike MacIntyre in his first season. The Buffaloes opened the season with wins in Denver 41-27 over Colorado State  and at home over Central Arkansas 38-24. The Buffs also beat Charleston Southern last week in Boulder 43-10 which was a replacement game after Colorado had a home game against Fresno State cancelled because of flooding in Boulder several weeks ago.  Colorado lost at Oregon State 44-17 and Arizona State 54-13 and were crushed at home  against Oregon 57-16. The Buffaloes are 3-3 ATS and the total is 4-2 this season. Colorado was a 28 point favorite at home against Charleston Southern and the total was 51.

Colorado took an early 8-0 lead against Charleston Southern and made a two point conversion. The Buffaloes would expand the lead to 22-3 in the second quarter, but the Buccaneers would add a touchdown late in the half to make it 22-10. Colorado outscored Charleston Southern 21-0 in the second half to  cover the spread 43-10. Colorado had 416 total yards including 218 rushing yards. The overmatched Buccaneers had just 196 total yards and  11 first downs. CSU had the only 2 turnovers of the game.

Colorado is being outscored 36-28 this season. Colorado is #109 out of 125 teams in points allowed.  The Buffaloes are averaging 382 total yards per game including 255.7 yards per game but the rushing attack is #102 at 126.3 yards per game. On defense, Colorado is allowing 443.2 total yards per game including 268.5 passing and 174.7 rushing yards. Colorado is #98 in total defense and #107 against the pass. The Buffaloes are -1 in turnovers with 12 takeaways. Colorado is averaging 54 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 45. The Buffaloes are 29/90 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 42/112. Colorado is 12/14 scoring in the red zone with five touchdowns, and opponents are 26/33 with 20 touchdowns. The Buffaloes have 3 defensive touchdowns this season. Colorado has forced 10 sacks and allowed 12 this season.

Quarterback Connor Wood has completed 53.2% of his passes for 1,092 yards with 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 22 carries. He has been benched in favor of freshman Sefo Liufau, who started the Charleston Southern game. Liufau has completed 69.6% of his passes for 367 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 7 carries.

Running back Michael Adkins III has 49 carries for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 5 catches. Christian Powell has 69 carries for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 3 catches. Tony Jones has 40 carries for 161 yards along with 5 catches. Receiver Paul Richardson has 43 catches, 782 yards and 6 touchdowns, and he also has a touchdown pass. Nelson Spruce has 23 catches, 275 yards and 2 touchdown. D.D. Goodson has 10 catches for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Justin Castor is out for the season with a hip injury. Tight end Alex Wood is questionable with a concussion. Fullback Clay Jones is questionable with a neck injury.

Arizona is 4-1 ATS in October, 2-5 in Pac 12 games, 4-10 after a cover, 2-6 on grass, 1-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more, after gaining more than 450 total yards, and after passing for less than 170 yards, and 1-5 after allowing less than 170 passing yards.

Colorado is 4-10 ATS after scoring more than 40 points and at home, 8-20 overall, 6-15 on grass, 2-5 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 8-21 against teams with winning records, 7-21 in conference games, 6-21-1 in October, 1-4 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 1-5 after a straight up win and a cover, and 0-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more.

Colorado won one game last year, so at 3-3 this season is already more successful than last. However, Colorado has beaten up on weaker teams and were destroyed by the three good teams they have played by 27 points or more. Arizona is a good team so they should roll over the Buffaloes. The line dropped from 17 to 12 so you can get value on the Wildcats.

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