College Football Week Four Betting Predictions: Hawaii Warriors at Colorado Buffaloes

Hawaii Warriors at Colorado Buffaloes
Folsom Field – Boulder, Colorado

Saturday, September 20. 2014, 2:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Colorado -7
Current Line: Colorado -8
Opening Total: 61
Current Total: 60
Opening Money Line: Colorado -264 / Hawaii +236
Current Money Line: Colorado -320 / Hawaii +260

Colorado is an 8 point favorite at home against Hawaii.
Colorado is an 8 point favorite at home against Hawaii.

Both the Hawaii Warriors and Colorado Buffaloes are 1-2 as they meet Saturday afternoon in Boulder. Hawaii leads the series 2-1 including a 34-17 win in Honolulu in 2011. The teams will play again next year in Hawaii to open the 2015 season. This series actually dates back to 1924.

Hawaii is coached by Norm Chow. The Warriors opened the season with narrow losses to two other Pac 12 teams Washington 17-16 and Oregon State 38-30, both at home for Hawaii. The Warriors beat Northern Iowa last week 27-24 in Hawaii. Hawaii is 3-0 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. The Warriors were 2 point favorites against Northern Iowa and the total was 57.

Colorado is coached by Mike MacIntyre. The Buffaloes have a loss to Colorado State in Denver 31-17 and last week against Arizona State 38-24 at home. The Buffaloes had over 500 total yards in the ASU game but were unable to overcome a 17-0 first quarter deficit. Colorado has a 41-38 win at Massachusetts. The Buffaloes are 1-2 ATS and the total is 1-2 as well. Colorado was a 15.5 point underdog against ASU and the ttoal was 68.5.

Hawaii is being outscored 26-24 this season. The Warriors average 378 yards per game on offense including 223 passing and 155 rushing yards. On defense, Hawaii is allowing 373 total yards per game including 242 passing and 131 rushing yards. The Warriors are +1 in turnovers with 4 takeaways. Hawaii averages 63 penalty yards per game and opponents average 48. Hawaii is 25/72 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 15/49. The Warriors have forced 4 sacks and allowed 8 this season. Hawaii is 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns and opponents are 10/10 with 8 touchdowns. Hawaii has a fumble return for a touchdown.

Hawaii quarterback Ikaika Woolsey has completed 46.7% of his passes for 631 yards with a touchdown and an interception, plus 27 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown. Running back Joey Iosefa has 49 carries for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 5 catches. He is out until late October with an ankle injury. Steven Lakalaka has 47 carries for 173 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Kemp has 13 catches for 202 yards. Quinton Pedroza has 20 catches for 187 yards.

Colorado is being outscored 36-27 this season. The Buffaloes are averaging 465 yards per game on offense including 291 passing and 174 rushing yards per game. On defense, Colorado is allowing 399 total yards per game including 201 passing and 198 rushing yards per game. The Buffaloes are -2 in turnovers with 4 giveaways. Colorado is averaging 87 penalty yards per game and opponents average 69. The Buffaloes are 25/58 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 16/42. Colorado has forced 5 sacks and allowed 5 as well. The Buffaloes are 10/11 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns and opponents are 14/14 with 12 touchdowns.

Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau has completed 63.8% of his passes for 837 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, plus 20 carries for 48 yards. Running back Christian Powell has 35 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches. Tony Jones, Phillip Lindsay and Michael Adkins II will also get carries. Receiver Nelson Spruce has 24 catches for 346 yards and 6 touchdowns. Shay Fields has 21 catches for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Hawaii is 8-0 ATS in non-conference games, 5-0 overall and against Pac 12 teams, 4-1 in September, 8-3 on grass, 5-2 in road games, 9-4 against teams with losing home records, and 1-5 after a straight up win.

Colorado is 4-1 ATS after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, after passing for more than 280 yards, and on grass, 12-27-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 3-7 after a cover, and 0-5 after rushing for 200 yards or more.

Both of these teams are much better than last year when they combined for 5 wins. Still, they are both 1-2, but they have been competitive in every game. I like Colorado to win handily at home especially without Iosefa for Hawaii.

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