College Football Week 7 Picks ATS: Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies

Sean Renfree and the 5-1 Blue Devils have been one of the surprises of the ACC so far.
Duke-Virginia Tech
Time: 12:30 PM EST, Saturday
Spread: VT -10
Total: 54.5
M/L: VT -365, DUK +305

Odds from Bookmaker

Duke has been a surprise team this season. They’ve lost only one game, and it was to a ranked opponent (then No. 25 Stanford). With big wins over Florida International, NC Central, Memphis, Wake Forest and Virginia, the Blue Devils are rolling on the strength of an offense that ranks 27th in the nation, scoring 37.8 points per game.

This week against Virginia Tech could be a bit different. The Hokies have disappointed a little so far, winning three of their six games, but the ACC rival has a relatively strong defense—the Hokies allow 22.3 points per game. They’ve struggled the last two weeks with losses to Cincinnati and UNC, and will try to get back on track against a weak Duke defense.

The Hokies will do it with their pass game. Junior Logan Thomas has 1,447 passing yards on the season with 10 TDs. He’s posted a QB rating of 124.1, which is down from last year’s 135.5. The reason has been a poor offensive line, which has allowed Thomas to be sacked 10 times. Don’t expect that to happen this week against Duke, but keep an eye on how well the pockets are protected.

If Duke is to pull a big upset, it will be because the Hokies’ OL hasn’t done their job. If the Blue Devils can even apply decent pass pressure, it could be enough to make Thomas falter, as he has thrown seven INTs this season so far.

Duke’s strength is passing the ball, as well. They’ve thrown for 288.7 yards per game, which ranks 31st in the nation. Senior QB Sean Renfree has thrown for 1,282 yards and nine TDs, posting a QB rating of 147.9. He has yet to have a really bad game. He’s thrown for at least 200 yards in all Blue Devils contests, and has been sacked only four times all year. The Blue Devils OL has been solid and it’s enabled them to be the surprise team of the ACC, but it will only go so far if they lose this big one to a conference rival.

Duke Betting Trends:

Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 following an SU win of more than 20 pts, 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 in OCT, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 after allowing 45+ pts in the previous game.

Virginia Tech Betting Trends:

Hokies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 200+ yards, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after accumulating 280+ passing yards previous game, 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after accumulating less than 100 yds in the previous game, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 on grass, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs team with winning records.

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