College Football Week 4 Predictions: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, 9/20/14, 12:00 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  Wisconsin -21
Current Betting Line:  Wisconsin -27
Opening Total:  61
Current Total:  63.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Wisconsin Badgers are 29-2 SU all-time against current MAC members
The Wisconsin Badgers are 29-2 SU all-time against current MAC members

Bowling Green has won two of its first three games this season, including a 45-42 victory over the Indiana Hoosiers as 8.5-point home underdogs last Saturday, while going OVER the betting total for the second time in that span.  The Falcons have dropped the three previous meetings in this series, which is important to consider when making your Week 4 college football predictions, with the last matchup resulting in a 35-14 loss as 11.5-point home underdogs in 2006.  Bowling Green is 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS as underdogs the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 6-3 in that situation.

The Falcons put the ball in the air with great regularity last time out, with quarterback James Knapke completing 46-of-73 passes for a career-high 395 yards and three touchdowns.  Wide receiver Roger Lewis was his main target—finishing with a career-high 16 receptions for 149 yards and catching the game-winning touchdown passes with nine seconds left.  Bowling Green’s 113 plays from scrimmage were a school record, with its previous high being 100 back in 2001.

Wisconsin is coming off its first bye week of the 2014 campaign, as it looks to win its 31st consecutive home game versus a non-conference opponent, with only the LSU Tigers having a longer active run nationally in that situation.  Dating back to the 2009 season, the Badgers have won their last six games following a week off, which can’t be ignored when looking over the college football odds page.  It’s important to point out that the program owns a 29-2 SU record against teams currently in the Mid-American Conference.  Wisconsin is 17-4 SU and 12-9 ATS as favorites the last two-plus seasons.

Despite being held to just 38 yards on 17 attempts versus Western Illinois last time out, Badgers running back Melvin Gordon still holds the Big Ten Conference record for career rushing average at 7.81 yards per carry.  Wisconsin has won its last six games following a bye week by a combined 255-49 margin.  The program is one of just four nationally to rank in the top 25 in all four major defensive statistical categories.

Sports bettors will likely back the Falcons due to the Badgers being 0-5 ATS in their last five contests.

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