College Football Week #14 Civil War Betting Odds and Predictions: Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks

Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks
Autzen Stadium – Eugene, Oregon 
Friday, November, 29, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Oregon -21
Current Line: Oregon -21 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 67 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -1600 / Oregon State +1050
Current Money Line: Oregon -1800 / Oregon State +1150

The Oregon Ducks are 21 1/2 point favorite at home against Civil war rival Oregon State Friday.
The Oregon Ducks are 21 1/2 point favorite at home against Civil war rival Oregon State Friday.

A couple of weeks Oregon players running back DeAnthony Thomas and wide receiver Josh Huff downplayed the significance of the historic Rose Bowl game, basically calling it a consolation game. Well, the Ducks don’t have to worry about that after last week’s lackluster blowout loss at Arizona 42-16 eliminated them from winning the Pac 12 North Championship and a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game. In fact, it wasn’t a good day for either one of of the Pac 12 teams from Oregon as the Oregon State Beavers were crushed by Washington 69-27. This week, Oregon and Oregon State look to rebound as they renew their Civil War rivalry for the 117th time Friday in Eugene to close out the regular season.

Oregon is 9-2 this season and 6-2 in the Pac 12. Oregon State is 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the Pac 12. Both teams are bowl eligible. Oregon leads the series  60-46-10 against Oregon State including 15-7-1 at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have beaten the Beavers five straight times including 48-24 last season in Corvallis.

Oregon State is coached by Mike Riley. After a season opening home loss to Eastern Washington 49-46, Oregon State won 6 straight games. The Beavers have lost 4 straight games including home losses to Stanford 20-12, USC 31-14, and last week at Washington 69-27, along with a road loss at Arizona State 30-17 . The Beavers have home wins over Hawaii 33-14 and against Colorado 44-17. OSU also has road wins at Utah 51-48 in overtime, San Diego State 34-30, at Washington State 52-24 and at California 49-17. The Beavers are 5-6 ATS and the total is 6-5 this season. Oregon State was an 2 point underdog against Washington and the total was 59.

Washington took a 48-0 lead into the fourth quarter against Oregon State. The fourth quarter was wild and featured 48 combined points. The Huskies won 69-27. Washington had an 80 yard pick six and Oregon State had a 98 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. The Huskies had 692 total yards including 530 rushing yards. The Beavers had 414 total yards including 308 passing yards. Oregon State had 4 turnovers.

Oregon State is outscoring teams 35-32 this season. Oregon State is #31 in scoring nationally and #95 in points allowed out of 125 FBS teams. The Beavers are averaging 461.1 yards per game including 388.3 passing and 72.8 rushing yards. The Beavers are #3 in passing but are #122 in rushing nationally. OSU is #32 in total offense.  On defense, Oregon State is allowing 415.5 total yards per game including 230.5 passing and 185 rushing yards. OSU is #81 in total defense and #84 against the rush. The Beavers are +2 in turnovers with 24 takeaways. The Beavers average 50 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 58. OSU is 74/173 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 64/162. The Beavers have forced 20 sacks and allowed 23 this season. Oregon State is 45/58 scoring in the red zone with 37 touchdowns and opponents are 36/39 with 24 touchdowns. The Beavers have 3 pick sixes and a kickoff return for a touchdown and have allowed three pick sixes.

OSU quarterback Sean Mannion has completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,089 yards with 34 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.  Running back Storm Woods has 96 carries, 297 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 41 catches for 388 yards and a touchdown. Terron Ward has 87 carries for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns,along with 27 catches for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 110 catches, 1,560 yards and 15 touchdowns, along with 186 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Richard Mullaney has 48 catches, 729 yards and 3  touchdowns. Tight end Connor Hamlett has 36 catches, 329 yards and 5 touchdowns. Kevin Cummings, Caleb Smith and Kellen Clute each have at least two touchdown catches and Smith has 4.

Oregon is coached by Mark Helfrich. The Ducks have home wins over Nicholls State 66-3, Tennessee 59-14, California 55-16, Washington State 62-38, UCLA 42-14 and  Utah 44-21, along with road wins at Virginia 59-10, Colorado 57-16 and at Washington 45-24. The Ducks also have road losses at Stanford 26-20 and last week at Arizona 42-16.  Oregon is  7-4 ATS and the total is 6-5 this season. The Ducks were 20.5 point favorites against Arizona  and the total was 70.

Arizona jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead against Oregon and would take a 28-9 lead into halftime. The Wildcats would cruise to a 42-16 upset win. The Ducks had 506 total yards including 308 passing and 198 rushing yards. Arizona had 482 total yards including 304 rushing yards. Oregon had 8 penalties for 66 yards and 3 turnovers.

Oregon is outscoring teams 48-20 this season. Oregon is #4 nationally in scoring and #21 in points allowed. The Ducks average 573.5 yards per game including 295.5 rushing and 278 passing yards. Oregon is #3 in total offense and #10 in rushing. Even the passing attack is #20 in the country. Oregon is allowing 366.4 yards per game on defense, including 208.1 passing and 158.3 rushing yards. Oregon is 37th or better in total and pass defense out of 125 teams. The Ducks are +9 in turnovers for the season with 24 takeaways. Oregon is 70/160 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 91/218. The Ducks have forced 24 sacks and allowed 16. Oregon is 50/65 scoring in the red zone with 44 touchdowns, and opponents are 31/38 with 21 touchdowns. The Ducks are averaging 71 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 44. Oregon has 2 punt returns for touchdowns, a kick return for a TD, a fumble return for a touchdown and a pick six. The Ducks have allowed one fumble return for a touchdown.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 64.4% of his passes for 3,127 yards with 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, along with 74 carries for 529 yards and 9 touchdowns. He was considered by many to be the Heisman front runner before losses in two of the last three games. Mariota is probable with a head injury after passing his concussion test. If Mariota can’t go either Jake Rodrigues or Jeff Lockie will get the start. Rodrigues has a touchdown and a pick and 67 passing yards along with 38 rushing yards. Lockie has thrown for 57 yards with  an interception, along with 28 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Running back Byron Marshall has 155 carries, 995 yards, and 14 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 150 yards. He is doubtful with a foot injury. Thomas Tyner has 87 carries for 549 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 109 yards. De’Anthony Thomas has 78 carries, 493 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 20 catches for 222 yards and a touchdown. He also has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Receiver Josh Huff has 48 catches for 850 yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 27 rushing yards. Bralon Addison has 53 catches for 798 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Keanon Lowe, John Mundt and Daryle Hawkins have 3 touchdown catches each.

Oregon State is 8-2 ATS after failing to cover, 12-3 after a double digit home loss, 4-1 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, and in road games, 18-7-1 against teams with winning home records, and 1-5 in Friday games. The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in this series recently. The over is 10-1 in this series recently including 5-0 in Eugene.

Oregon is 8-2 ATS after allowing 40 points or more, 3-1-1 after a straight up loss, 6-2 on fieldturf, 11-4 against teams with winning records, 8-3-1 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 7-3 at home, 9-4-1 after failing to cover, 23-11-1 after passing for more than 280 passing yards, 2-5 against teams with winning road records, 2-6 after scoring less than 20 points, 1-4 in Friday games, in Pac 12 games, in November and overall, 1-7 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, and 0-4 after allowing more than 450 total yards. The Ducks are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 against the Beavers.

Oregon controlled their own destiny for the Pac 12 North Division after USC upset Stanford a couple of weeks ago. The Ducks squandered that opportunity by losing to Arizona. Now instead of a likely BCS Bowl, Oregon will likely either go to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl or San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. Oregon State is bowl eligible but just barely. The Beavers have gone into a four game tailspin after a 6-1 start. However, each team can end the season on a bright note if they can beat their rival Friday. I think the Ducks will be angry and take their frustrations out on Oregon State who has one of the worst defenses in the country. It should be a shootout.

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