College Football Week 12 Betting Preview: Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets
Glass Bowl – Toledo, Ohio

Tuesday, November 12, 2013, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Toledo -3 1/2
Current Line: Toledo -3 1/2
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: Toledo -165 / Buffalo +145
Current Money Line: Toledo -170 / Buffalo +150

Toledo is a 3.5 point favorite at home Tuesday against Buffalo in a key MAC game.
Toledo is a 3.5 point favorite at home Tuesday against Buffalo in a key MAC game.

The 7-2 Buffalo Bulls are 5-0 in the MAC. The Bulls lead the East Division by a game over 4-1 Bowling Green. Buffalo travels to the 6-3 Toledo Rockets Tuesday. The Rockets are 4-1 in the MAC West behind 6-0 Northern Illinois and 5-0 Ball State. Northern Illinois and Ball State play each other Wednesday night. Toledo leads the series against Buffalo 6-3 including a 25-20 win last year in Buffalo. The Bulls are 0-2 all-time in the Glass Bowl.

Buffalo is coached by Jeff Quinn. The Bulls opened the season with road losses at still undefeated teams currently ranked in the top five nationally Ohio State 40-20 and Baylor 70-13. Buffalo has won seven straight since then with home wins over Stony Brook 26-23 in five overtimes, Connecticut 41-12, Eastern Michigan 42-14, Massachusetts 32-3, and last week against Ohio 30-3, along with road wins at Western Michigan 33-0, and at Kent State 41-21. It is the longest winning streak for Buffalo since 1959. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS and the total is 6-3 this season. Buffalo was a 4 point favorite against Ohio last Tuesday and the total was 54.

Buffalo took a 7-3 lead into halftime against Ohio last week. Early in the third quarter, Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton was flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone for a safety. However, replays clearly showed Tettleton was at least three or four yards out of the end zone, but the play was not reviewable. From that point on, Buffalo outscored Ohio 23-0 to win the game 30-3. Ohio had 233 total yards including 164 passing yards. Buffalo had 421 total yards including 252 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover. Buffalo had 7 penalties for 88 yards.

Buffalo is outscoring teams 31-21 this season. The Bulls are averaging 385.3 yards per game including 203.9 passing and 181.4 rushing yards. Buffalo is #84 in total offense and #91 in passing out of 125 FBS teams.  On defense, the Bulls are allowing 363.9 yards per game including 230.7 passing and 133.7 rushing yards. The Bulls are in the top 30 nationally in total defense, rush defense and points allowed. Buffalo is +15 in turnovers with 22 takeaways. The Bulls average 66 penalty yards per game and opponents average 64. Buffalo is 55/144 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 48/139. The Bulls have forced 28 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Buffalo is 28/34 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns and opponents are 19/27 with 13 touchdowns. Buffalo has three pick sixes and a kickoff return for a touchdown, and has allowed a fumble return for a touchdown.

Buffalo quarterback Joe Licata has completed 60.3% of his passes for 1,738 yards with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Running back Branden Oliver has 214 carries for 1,123 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 99 yards. Anthone Taylor has 58 carries for 215 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. James Potts has 52 carries for 182 yards. Receiver Alex Neutz has 43 catches, 707 yards and 9 touchdowns. Fred Lee has 37 catches for 423 yards with 3 touchdowns. Devin Campbell has 14 catches for 153 yards, along with 2 rushing touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Mason Schreck has only 13 catches for 102 yards but two of them went for touchdowns. Two defensive players are listed as questionable or out, along receiver Marcus McGill and running backs Boomer Brock and Jordan Johnson .

Toledo is coached by Matt Campbell. The Rockets have road losses at Florida 24-6, Missouri 38-23, and Ball State 31-24. The Rockets have won four straight games since the Ball State loss. Toledo has home wins over Eastern Washington       33-21, Western Michigan 47-20, Navy 45-44 in double overtime, and two weeks ago against Eastern Michigan 55-16, along with road wins at Central Michigan 38-17, and Bowling Green 28-25. The Rockets are 6-2-1 ATS and the total is 3-6 this season. Toledo was a 30.5 point favorite at home against Eastern Michigan and the total was 66.5.

Toledo scored 28 points before Eastern Michigan even got on the board. The Rockets would take a 38-10 into halftime.  Toledo would cruise to a 55-16 blowout over the one win Eagles. The Rockets had 729 total yards including 395 passing and 334 rushing yards. EMU had 309 total yards including 227 passing yards. Each team had one turnover.

Toledo is outscoring teams 33-26 this season. The Rockets are averaging 445.6 yards per game including 206.7 passing and 238.9 rushing. Toledo is #15 in rushing nationally and #88 in passing. The Rockets are #44 in both total and scoring offense. On defense, Toledo is allowing 394.4 total yards including 228.7 passing and 165.8 rushing yards. The Rockets are +7 in turnovers with 17 takeaways. Toledo averages 56 penalty yards per game and opponents average 36. The Rockets are 51/120 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 61/134. Toledo has forced 27 sacks and allowed 4 this season. The Rockets are 32/36 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns and opponents are 34/38 with 27 touchdowns. Toledo has 5 defensive touchdowns this season including four fumble returns for touchdowns.

Toledo quarterback Terrance Owens has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,609 yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 33 carries for 118 yards and a rushing touchdown. Back-up Logan Woodside has thrown for 240 yards and a touchdown, mostly in garbage time of blowouts.

Running back David Fluellen has 152 carries for 1,067 yards with 10 touchdowns, along with 25 catches for 205 yards. He is questionable with an ankle injury after missing the Eastern Michigan game. Kareem Hunt has 68 carries for 486 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 8 catches for 48 yards. Damion Jones-Moore has 33 carries for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 57 yards. Receiver Bernard Reedy has 52 catches for 587 yards and 4 touchdowns. Alonzo Russell has 44 catches for 515 yards and 5 touchdowns. Dwight Macon and Justin Olack each have a touchdown catch. Three defensive players are listed as questionable or out Tuesday.

Buffalo is 6-0 ATS after a straight up win, overall, on fieldturf, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 5-0 in MAC games, after a cover, and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 4-0 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, after a straight up win of 20 points or more, after allowing 20 points or less, and after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 4-1 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 5-13 against teams with winning records, 4-11-2 in November, 3-9-1 after a bye week, and 1-7 against teams with winning home records. The Bulls have covered the four times against Toledo.

Toledo is 5-1-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 4-1 in MAC games, 6-2-1 overall, 5-2-1 on fieldturf, 6-14-1 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 2-5-1 after a cover, 1-4 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 1-5 against teams with winning road records, 0-6 in Tuesday games, and 0-7 after a bye week.

Both Buffalo and Toledo are red hot right now as they are on long winning streaks. Both teams are effective at running the ball on offense. The offensive lines are good as protecting the quarterbacks and opening up running lanes.  The Rockets and Bulls have great pass rushes and force a lot of turnovers. The main difference is Toledo gives up more yardage and points on defense. I like Buffalo to pull off the mild upset on the road, especially if Fluellen doesn’t play.


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