College Football Rose Bowl Betting Preview: #5 Iowa Hawkeyes vs #6 Stanford Cardinal

2016 Rose Bowl Presented by Northwestern Mutual
#5 Iowa Hawkeyes vs #6 Stanford Cardinal
Friday, January 1, 2016, 5:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Opening Line: Stanford -7
Current Line: Stanford -6 (-115)
Opening Total: 49 1/2
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Stanford -260 / Iowa +200
Current Money Line: Stanford -230 / Iowa +190

Stanford is a 6 point favorite over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.
Stanford is a 6 point favorite over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

The 12-1 Iowa Hawkeyes and 11-2 Stanford Cardinal meet in the 2016 Rose Bowl. Both teams were playoff contenders but were not selected. Still, a trip to Pasadena isn’t a bad consolation prize. This is the first ever meeting between the schools.

Iowa is coached by Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes went 12-0 in the regular season and won the Big Ten West Division with an 8-0 record. Iowa lost to Michigan State 17-14 in the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis. Iowa is 14-13-1 all-time in bowl games. The Hawkeyes are 2-3 all-time in the Rose Bowl, but haven’t played here since 1991. Iowa looks to snap a three game bowl losing streak. The Hawkeyes lost to Tennessee 45-28 in the TaxSlayer Bowl last year.

Stanford is coached by David Shaw. The Cardinal won the Pac 12 North Division with an 8-1 record. Stanford beat USC 41-22 in the Pac 12 Championship game in Santa Clara. Stanford is 12-13-1 in bowl games. The Cardinal are 6-7-1 in the Rose Bowl all time. Stanford is making their third trip to Pasadena in the last four seasons. The Cardinal beat Maryland 45-21 in the Foster Farms Bowl last year in Santa Clara.

Iowa has home wins over Illinois State 31-14, Pittsburgh 27-24, North Texas 62-16, Illinois 29-20, Maryland 31-15, Minnesota 40-35, and Purdue 40-20. The Hawkeyes have road wins over Iowa State 31-17, Wisconsin 10-6, Northwestern 40-10, Indiana 35-27, and Nebraska 28-20.

In the Big Ten Championship game, MSU was a 3 point favorite against then undefeated Iowa and the total was 50. It was a defensive struggle as expected. Michigan State took a 9-6 lead into the fourth quarter with all the scoring via field goals. Iowa scored the game’s first touchdown on an 85 yard touchdown pass early in the fourth quarter and also converted for two points. The teams exchanged punts. Michigan State took over at their own 18 yard line with 9:31 left. The Spartans would go on arguably one of the best drives in college football history. They took 9:04 to drive down the field and score the go-ahead touchdown with 27 seconds left to make it 17-14. Iowa fumbled on the last play of the game. It was their third turnover of the game for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is 7-5-1 ATS and the total is 7-5-1 this season.

Stanford is coached by David Shaw. The Cardinal have losses at Northwestern 16-6 and at home against Oregon 38-36. Stanford has home wins over UCF 31-7, Arizona 55-17, UCLA 56-35, Washington 31-14, California 35-22 and Notre Dame 38-36,  along with road wins at USC 41-31, Oregon State 42-24, Washington State 30-28 and Colorado 42-10.

Stanford was a 4.5 point favorite against USC in the Pac 12 Championship game and the total was 59. Stanford took an early 13-0 lead, but USC would score 16 straight points. The Cardinal outscored them 28-6 for the rest of the game. Stanford is 9-4 ATS and the total is 7-6 this season.

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Iowa is outscoring teams 32-19 this season. Iowa is #11 nationally in points allowed. Iowa averages 394 yards per game on offense including 202 passing and 192 rushing yards. On defense, the Hawkeyes allow 334 yards per game, including 219 passing and 115 rushing yards. Iowa is #19 in total defense and #10 against the rush nationally. The Hawkeyes have forced 26 turnovers and have 14 of their own. Iowa averages 49 penalty yards per game and opponents average 58 per game. The Hawkeyes are 81/185 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 88/225. Iowa has forced 29 sacks and allowed 23 this season. The Hawkeyes are 45/52 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns, and opponents are 27-33 with 17 touchdowns. Iowa has four pick sixes this season.

Quarterback C.J. Beathard has thrown for 2,570 yards with 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 87 carries for 270 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is probable with a hip injury.

Running back Jordan Canzeri has 178 carries for 976 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus 18 catches for 196 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with an ankle injury. LeShun Daniels, Jr. has 135 carries for 609 yards with 8 touchdowns. Akrum Wadley has 74 carries for 463 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 3 catches. Derrick Mitchell, Jr. will also get some carries.

Receiver Matt VandeBerg has 61 catches for 639 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tevaun Smith has 30 catches for 546 yards and 3 touchdowns. Henry Krieger  Coble has 32 catches for 385 yards and a touchdown. George Kittle has 20 catches for 290 yards and 6 touchdowns.

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Stanford is outscoring teams 37-23 this season. The Cardinal are #20 in scoring and #42 in points allowed. Stanford averages 437 yards per game on offense including 216 passing and 222 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #39 in total offense and #22 in rushing. On defense, Stanford is allowing 376 yards per game including 232 passing yards and 144 rushing yards. The Cardinal are in the top 50 in total and rush defense nationally. Stanford has forced 11 turnovers but has 12 of their own. The Cardinal average 43 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53. Stanford is 91/170 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 72/183. The Cardinal have forced 23 sacks and allowed 18 this season. Stanford is 47/53 scoring in the red zone with 37 touchdowns and opponents are 37/41 with 18 touchdowns. The Cardinal have a pick six and a kick return for a touchdown.

Quarterback Kevin Hogan has completed 68.3% of his passes for 2,500 yards with 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 72 carries for 294 yards and four rushing touchdowns.

Running back Christian McCaffrey has 287 carries for 1,640 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 37 catches for 435 yards and 3 touchdowns. He finished second in the Heisman voting. Barry Sanders, Jr. has 48 carries for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns. Remound Wright has 69 carries for 185 yards and 13 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. Fullback Daniel Marx is out for the season.

Receiver Michael Rector has 30 catches for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns. Austin Hooper has 29 catches for 406 yards and 6 touchdowns. Bryce Love has 14 catches for 248 yards and a touchdown, plus 215 rushing yards on 26 carries with two touchdowns. Devon Cajuste has 25 catches for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Stanford is 6-1 ATS in neutral site games, 5-1 in bowl games, 25-6-1 after scoring more than 40 points, 17-5 after passing for less than 170 yards, 9-3 after a straight up win, 12-4 overall, 8-3 against teams with winning records, 5-2 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 7-3 after a cover, and 39-18-1 on grass.

Iowa is 7-2 on grass, 5-2 in bowl games and in January, 41-20-1 after a straight up loss, 1-3-1 in neutral site games, and 2-8-1 after gaining less than 275 total yards.

With these two defenses, this could be a low scoring game. Iowa has had a lot of close calls, but their luck finally ran out against Michigan State. I like the Cardinal to win a close game.

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